CHINAMacroReporter

Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?

Some have asked me what will be the greatest risk to China in the next five years. My answer: That Xi Jinping will overstep and enact policies that Chinese people won’t accept, especially those that have a direct impact on their lives and livelihoods.
by

Malcolm Riddell

|

CHINADebate

January 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?

Greetings once again from Sarasota, Florida.

  • Where it’s sunny and clear with a temperature of 74.

And welcome to 2023.

  • I have never been so happy to start a New Year.

Surveying China over 2022, I tried to pick out the most consequential event.

  • Xi Jinping’s third term? Biden’s ban on advanced semiconductors and what that portends of U.S. policy? Mr. Xi’s sudden reversal of his Zero-COVID policy?

All of those – and several others – were in the running.

  • In the end, though, I chose a change in perception, not an event, as the biggest thing for China last year.

My choice is summed up by Nick Kristof, who writes:

  • ‘Xi has meticulously cultivated a personality cult around himself as the kindly “Uncle Xi” — whose slogan could be “Make China Great Again” —'
  • ‘but in the major cities it’s now obvious that he’s regarded by many as an obstinate, ruthless and not terribly effective dictator.’

The focus is on a ‘not terribly effective dictator.’

  • Chinese citizens might obey an obstinate and ruthless dictator but not an ineffective one.

From all accounts, Mr. Xi is a well-liked and trusted ruler.

  • But if doubt has taken root among the Chinese people, despite a continual drumbeat about Mr. Xi’s being darn near infallible, then the impact his ability to rule without undue coercion could be the most consequential outcome for China in 2022.

1 | ‘The first public display of defiance’

That doubt became visible in the demonstrations against Mr. Xi’s Zero-COVID policy, as Yuen Yuen Ang explains:

  • ‘What is different and significant about the recent protests is that they are not about narrow, local conflicts.’
  • ‘Instead, they are directed at a national policy personally pioneered by Xi.’

‘Yet these demonstrators, as extraordinarily brave as they are, do not yet constitute a revolutionary force.’

  • ‘Although the political protests attract the most media attention, many on the streets appear to be demanding only their physical freedom and the right to their livelihoods—not political change.’
  • ‘The anti-lockdown protests are not a “color revolution” aimed at or able to topple the regime.’
  • ‘But they are the first public display of defiance against a national policy that Xi has encountered under his iron-fisted rule.’

‘Still, there could be a silent majority that complies with state policies and supports the Chinese Communist Party and Xi.’

  • ‘Xi remains popular among nationalists and those who benefited from his antipoverty policies.’

2 | ‘A major policy failure that did not need to happen.’

But it’s hard to believe that even that silent majority doesn’t feel some doubt after Mr. Xi suddenly, without warning, and without preparation began to ease his Zero-COVID policy.

As Minxin Pei notes in ‘Why Didn’t China Prepare Better for Covid Chaos?’:

  • ‘China ended its Covid Zero policy only weeks ago, after nationwide anti-lockdown protests.’

‘But President Xi Jinping’s government may already be losing its grip on the virus.’

  • ‘Hospitals are filling up with Covid patients and an alarming number of medical staff have been infected.’
  • ‘Pharmacies are running out of fever medication.’
  • Deaths attributed to Covid-19 appear to have jumped.’
  • ‘Modeling by experts forecasts as many as 1.5 million deaths in the coming months.’

‘The trauma of China’s exit from Covid Zero represents a major policy failure that did not need to happen.’

  • ‘The country had plenty of time to prepare for this moment.’
  • And Mr. Xi did not.

Back to Mr. Kristof:

  • ‘Whatever happens in the coming weeks and months, something important may have changed.’

‘ “It is so significant, for it’s a decisive breach of the ‘Big Silence,’” said Xiao Qiang, the founder and editor of China Digital Times.’

  • ‘ “It’s now public knowledge that the emperor isn’t wearing clothes.” ’

3 | Xi Jinping falters

Taking the notions of Mr. Xi as a ‘not terribly effective dictator’ or that he is an emperor without clothes to an extreme is Jonathan Tepperman in ‘China’s Dangerous Decline,’ in Foreign Affairs.

  • I don’t concur with this extreme – Mr. Xi has a slew of accomplishments and no doubt more to come – or with the assertion that he has brought ‘China teetering on the edge of a cliff.’

Having been a trial attorney, I know you have to hear both sides – and here is clearly just the prosecution’s case.

  • But it’s hard to argue that Mr. Xi hasn’t made a hash of an awfully lot of things.

In the early years of his reign, I had a grudging respect for Mr. Xi.

  • Mr. Xi appeared to have a broad plan to remake China in his own vision – and he was carrying it out carefully - step-by-step – and successfully.

I say grudging because I felt he was no friend of America and the advanced democracies.

  • And the better Mr. Xi ruled, the more danger I saw to these democracies and the liberal world order itself.

Then he faltered.

4 | Xi Jinping: ‘Bad Emperor’?

‘Since taking office in 2012,’ writes Mr. Tepperman, ‘Xi, in his single-minded pursuit of personal power, has systematically dismantled just about every reform meant to block the rise of a new Mao—to prevent what Francis Fukuyama has called the “Bad Emperor” problem.’

  • ‘Unfortunately for China, the reforms Xi has targeted were the same ones that had made it so successful in the intervening period.’

‘Over the last ten years, he has consolidated power in his own hands and eliminated bureaucratic incentives for truth-telling and achieving successful results, replacing them with a system that rewards just one thing:’

  • ‘loyalty.’

‘Meanwhile, he has imposed draconian new security laws and a high-tech surveillance system, cracked down on dissent, crushed independent nongovernmental organizations (even those that align with his policies), cut China off from foreign ideas, and turned the western territory Xinjiang into a giant concentration camp for Muslim Uyghurs.’

  • ‘And in the past year, he has also launched a war on China’s billionaires, pummeled its star tech firms, and increased the power and financing of the country’s inefficient and underperforming state-owned enterprises—starving private businesses of capital in the process.’

‘Xi also faces external problems on just about every front—'

  • ‘again mostly of his own making.’

‘Having abandoned Deng’s dictum that China “hide its strength and bide its time,” he has instead sought confrontation. That has meant:’

  • ‘accelerating land grabs in the South and East China Seas,’
  • ‘threatening Taiwan,’
  • ‘using usurious loans tendered under the Belt and Road Initiative to grab control of foreign infrastructure,’
  • ‘encouraging China’s envoys to engage in bullying “wolf-warrior” diplomacy, and most recently,’
  • ‘backing Russia in its illegal and unpopular war on Ukraine.’

‘The consequences have been predictable:’

  • ‘around the world, Beijing’s public standing has fallen to near- or all-time lows,’
  • ‘while states on China’s periphery have poured money into their militaries, crowded under Washington’s security umbrella, and embraced new security pacts such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (which links Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) and AUKUS (a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States).’

‘The recent party congress was just the icing on this toxic cake.’

  • ‘More than a display of China’s grandeur, the event served to highlight its growing flaws.’

‘It was Xi’s coronation as China’s latest Bad Emperor.’

5 | The most consequential outcome of 2022

Do the Chinese people think Mr. Xi is a Bad Emperor?

  • Not that I’ve seen.

Those of us outside China have watched Mr. Xi falter in the ways Mr. Tepperman describes.

  • The Chinese people, consuming only Party-controlled media, have not.

Until now, that is.

  • When they can directly ‘seek truth from facts’ from their own lived experiences.

Some have asked me what will be the greatest risk to China in the next five years.

  • My answer: That Xi Jinping will overstep and enact policies that Chinese people won’t accept, especially those that have a direct impact on their lives and livelihoods.

As I have often said:

  • The Chinese are patient, until they aren’t.

TheCOVID policy debacle shows this.

  • More tests of their patience are on their way if the Chinese people begin to perceive Mr. Xi is, in fact, a ‘not terribly effective dictator,’.

Then, this first change in their perception of Xi Jinping will turn out to be the most consequential outcome in China in 2022.

  • Because, as I said in the opening, the Chinese people might obey an obstinate and ruthless dictator but not an ineffective one.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

May 14, 2022
China GDP: 'A very long period of Japan-style low growth.’
Here are some of the insights from ‘The Only Five Paths China’s Economy Can Follow’ by Peking University’s Michael Pettis. This excellent analysis of China’s economy is worth a careful reading.
keep reading
May 1, 2022
'Zero Covid' & the Shanghai lockdown
Joerg Wuttke is the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China - the 'official voice of European business in China.'
keep reading
April 17, 2022
Is China's Tech 'Crackdown' Really Over?
Today, I’m sharing with you a bit of Ms. Schaefer’s analysis of the tech ‘crackdown’ (but not of the AI and algorithm law). She explains why...
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Ted Cruz, Chinese Communist Party Agree: Keep Hongkongers Trapped in China'
‘The bill Cruz blocked, the Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act of 2020, would grant political asylum to any resident of Hong Kong who arrives in the United States, allowing them to remain in the country legally after the expiration of any other visa.'
keep reading
January 31, 2021
Analysis: China tests Biden on Taiwan, with eye on another island
‘And it is at Pratas Island where a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war is being played out between the U.S. and China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Top Conflicts to Watch in 2021: The Danger of U.S.-China Confrontation Over Taiwan'
‘While people appear to believe that the Biden administration will strive to avoid acute crisis with China over Taiwan, U.S. policy toward Taiwan only reflects half of the story. The other, and more important half is from China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
China Tests Biden
In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'
In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping Wows Them at Davos'
‘The test for the Biden team is whether it will be tripped up by the feints toward international norms and comity that punctuate Mr. Xi’s pattern of regional aggression.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Champions Multilateralism at Davos, Again'
‘While Xi’s speech may have echoed similar themes from his 2017 address, today’s circumstances are markedly different.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Warns Against Confrontation in Veiled Message to Biden'
‘Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning against the new Biden administration’s preparations to rally allies to challenge Beijing on a range of issues.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China rejects 'strategic competition' and calls on US to cooperate'
‘China wants cooperation, not strategic competition, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, a day after the White House said it was looking to form a "new approach" toward China.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping at the Virtual Davos: Multilateralism with Chinese characteristics'
‘At the virtual Davos this week, Xi essentially proposed a multilateralism with Chinese characteristics—designed to ensure that international interactions be conducted in accordance with China’s perspectives.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part Two | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘China will think carefully before making its next moves, but it’s unlikely to submit tamely to American pressure.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘Reasons for Increases In Cross-Border Capital Flows into China’
'Cross-border portfolio capital flows into China have been rising since 2014.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped'
‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate. What has been overlookedis just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China'
‘For the Biden administration to successfully transition to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing Trump measures should not be treated in the same way.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Easing of Regulations Restricting Foreign Ownership of Financial Firms’
'Foreign firms have only a tiny slice of most segments of this market; they control less than 2 percent of banking assets, for example, and less than 6 percent of the insurance market.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
In today’s issue: 1. Rest easy. Xi is Safe / 2. China a Career Killer? /3. Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped / 4. China’s Financial Opening Accelerates
keep reading
January 23, 2021
The struggle over chips enters a new phase
In the 20th century the world’s biggest economic choke-point involved oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Soon it will be silicon etched in a few technology parks in South Korea and Taiwan.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Why Chinese Companies are Having a Tough Time Recruiting in the U.S.'
‘I have seen senior executives who take on very public roles within some of these Chinese companies find that their life after those companies has been more limited. It even has a bit of a taint. A bit like working for tobacco.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
H.R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy'
‘No doubt the Biden administration will see ways to improve the strategic framework we devised, but continuity with the approach is essential.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
‘So if you're an autocrat, you really have to be nervous about what's the military doing and is the military coming after me?’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Financial Opening Accelerates’
‘Despite predictions by some observers that the United States and China are headed for a “decoupling,” China’s integration into global financial markets is accelerating.’
keep reading
January 22, 2021
Confronting the Challenge of Chinese State Capitalism
‘When a U.S. or European firms compete against, say, COSCO Shipping or Huawei, it is the entirety of the Chinese government’s balance sheet that it must contend with, not just an individual firm.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
‘As Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
In today’s issue: 1. Biden's China Hawks / 2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?] / 3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping'
"The reason why Jack Ma and others could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing. They became famous globally and made China look very good, but then the Party had to figure out how to get their arms around them."
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'China: Taming the Overshoot'
‘We expect GDP growth to improve to 7.1% in 2021 from 2.2% in 2020.Realized growth will likely overshoot potential growth in 2021, but from a policy perspective, we expect that the authorities would prefer to avoid an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse'
‘Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'
In today’s issue: 1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’ / 2. China’s Fintech Threat‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’ / 3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'Kurt Campbell, Biden’s pick for a new NSC Asia position, should reassure nervous allies'
‘Asia watchers in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
1. 'Restoring Balance'
‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
3. 'Forging Coalitions'
‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order'
‘This combination of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the Indo-Pacific region in flux.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
2. 'Restoring Legitimacy'
‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.