CHINAMacroReporter

U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective

Wang Jisi notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership. But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do. I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.
by

|

CHINADebate

June 5, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
Wang Jisi

‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’

The author is Wang Jisi.

  • Wang is president of Peking University's Institute of International and Strategic Studies for his study of China's relations with the United States and international relations overall.
  • He serves on top advisory boards for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the and the Chinese Communist Party.
  • Foreign Policy has named him one of the Top 100 Public Intellectuals in the world.

And Mr. Wang seems to have insulation that allows him to speak his mind more openly than many others.

The report deviated from the usual line, saying, ‘Both the U.S. and China will lose from “decoupling.” And at this point, it looks like China’s loss may be greater.’

This week, I came across ‘Wang Jisi: Has America declined? Chinese people should have a clear understanding’ [‘王缉思: 美国到底有没有衰落? 中国人应有清醒认识’], an interview that Mr. Wang gave in May. (David Cowig provides a translation here.)

  • His essay in Foreign Affairs was an analysis of U.S.-China relations for a western audience.
  • This interview, published in Chinese, is for a Chinese audience – yet it has a sense that Mr. Wang is unencumbered by censorship or pressure from the government or Party.

He notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership.

  • But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do.
  • I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.

The interview is very long (but well worth reading in full). Below are excerpts representing some Mr. Wang’s key points.

  • You won’t agree with all his arguments. (I certainly didn’t.)

But you will better understand the Chinese point of view on U.S.-China relations, or at least that of an eminent and influential Chinese scholar.

1 | ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

Q: ‘Compared with more than 20 years ago, do you think the United States is in decline?’

Wang Jisi: ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

  • ‘Over the years, although the proportion of the U.S. economy in the world's total economy has declined relatively, it has basically stabilized in the range of 25% to 30%.’

‘Objectively speaking, the overall national strength of the United States is basically stable, but this does not seem to be the mainstream view at home and abroad.’  

  • ‘The only reason people feel the U.S. economy is weak is that they are comparing it to China.’

‘Nevertheless, the overall economic strength of developing countries is rising and that of developed countries overall is declining.’

  • ‘This performance confirms the general thesis of “the East is rising and the West is falling”.’ [Which Xi Jinping so often notes.]

‘Most of the discussions on “whether the United States is in decline” are from a political perspective.’

  • ‘Chairman Mao emphasized in 1957 that “the east wind overcomes the west wind”. At that time, China’s view was “the enemy is declining day by day, and we are getting better day by day”.’
  • ‘Now we say, “the East is rising, and the West is falling”, which is from the same lineage.’

2 | ‘The only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

Q: ‘What do you think are the characteristics of the Biden China strategy?

Mr. Wang: ‘The Biden administration's China strategy has three characteristics.’

‘First, the starting point is to strengthen America’s own power.’

  • ‘The Biden administration has always emphasized dialogue with China “from a position of strength,” because if its own strength declines, the United States will lose its competitiveness.’
  • ‘So their first step is to strengthen the U.S. own strength, enhance domestic economic and technological strength, accelerate infrastructure construction, and “get back” the real economy.’

‘Second, the U.S. wants to unite with some other countries in the world to jointly restrain China, and to establish a multilateral camp against China.’

  • ‘Since the Biden administration, the U.S. has held the “Summit of Democracies” and established the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Mechanism” and the U.S.-UK-Australia “Trilateral Security Partnership,” always emphasizing that the U.S. cannot “fight alone”.’

‘If there is a third point, it is that the United States believes that future competition is mainly a contest of national governance capabilities.’

  • ‘Whoever can avoid obvious policy mistakes will win indirectly through the mistakes of their opponents.’

‘Recognizing that there is nothing it can do to “change China,” the Biden administration can only look to exploit possible Chinese “policy mistakes” to weaken China.’

  • ‘This is why the U.S. sometimes deliberately provokes China into making “reckless” missteps, a move that is clearly purposeful and not as overt as the first two but is an important consideration for the U.S. side.’

‘So the only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

3 | ‘The U.S. does not believe that other civilizations can have its vitality and universality.’

Q: ‘How is this different from the U.S. strategy toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War?’

Mr. Wang: ‘When it comes to the difference between the current U.S. strategy toward China and the strategy of containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, I think it is more reflected in the impact of the differences in civilization and race between the two sides of the game.’

  • ‘On the one hand, the United States believes that the Western civilization system that has continued from ancient Greece and ancient Rome to the present belongs to a kind of "universal value", which represents the direction of the world's progress. They do not believe that there is any other civilization that is so vital and so universal.’
  • ‘On the other, China believes that the 5,000-year historical inheritance of Chinese civilization is sufficient to demonstrate the vitality and advancement of Eastern civilization or Confucian civilization. We have the responsibility and obligation to carry forward the Chinese civilization, which is different from Western Christian civilization, and that the two can go hand in hand.’

‘This brings up the issue of race.’

  • ‘The influence of China, as the representative of the "yellow race," is also rising rapidly.’
  • ‘In the eyes of the American elites represented by white people, it is intolerable for Chinese civilization to replace Christian civilization, so they will do everything possible to prevent China's development.’

4 | ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

Q: ‘Can the Chinese and U.S. economies really decouple?’

Mr. Wang: ‘China and the U.S. are inseparable economically, and economic interests will play a very big role between the two countries.’

  • ‘The interdependence between China and the United States is not a matter of willingness, but a problem that no one can avoid.’

‘The economic and trade structure of the two countries determines that the complete “decoupling” of the United States and China is impossible.’

  • ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

‘From this perspective, the United States cannot completely “decouple” from China.’

‘While for China, there would even be the risk of “strangulation”, so we still have to continue to insist on opening up to the outside world.’

  • ‘If a country has no demand for the outside world at all, that country cannot achieve real development either.’

5 | ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

Q: ‘Do you think the U.S. government's Taiwan policy is undergoing fundamental changes? If there is war in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States intervene?’

Mr. Wang: ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

  • ‘The United States still emphasizes the “One-China Policy,” but that policy has never included recognizing Taiwan as a part of China .’

‘The U.S. is ambiguous on this issue, recognizing only the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government representing China.’

  • ‘This shows the fundamental difference between the U.S. One-China Policy and our One-China principle.’

‘We believe that:’

  1. ‘There is only one China in the world,’
  2. ‘The government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and’
  3. ‘Taiwan is a part of China.’

‘These three sentences are linked together.’

  • ‘The United States has accepted only the first two sentences.'
  • 'At the same time, it haskept walking a tightrope on the third sentence, neither denying that Taiwan is an independent political entity nor supporting “Taiwan independence”.’

‘In my opinion, the U.S. does not fully support "Taiwan independence".’

  • ‘Successive U.S. governments have used the Taiwan issue to keep China in check.’
  • ‘In the unlikely event that “Taiwan independence” does materialize, the U.S. would lose the leverage to use Taiwan as a counterweight to China.’
  • ‘Moreover, "Taiwan independence" will trigger a war between China and the United States, and the United States will not gain much.’

‘For the U.S., the best state of affairs is that Taiwan is neither under the control of the Mainland, nor does it transform itself into a legally “independent Taiwan”.’

  • ‘This way it can continue to reap the benefits” on both sides.’

‘What the United States has always supported is that Taiwan is neither reunified nor independent.’

  • ‘And this basic principle has not changed.’

‘The Biden administration has increased its efforts to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to pressure China.’

  • ‘But I don’t think the bottom line has changed.’

‘As for whether or not the U.S. will intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and the extent of its involvement, I think it is difficult to pre-determine.’

  • ‘It mainly depends on the form and scale of the mainland's "use of force against Taiwan".’

‘We must retain the option of "using force against Taiwan" as bottom-line thinking.’

  • ‘As the Tsai Ing-wen administration continues to escalate provocations against the Mainland, we will also emphasize the credibility and urgency of resolving the Taiwan issue by force, so as to form a stronger deterrent to the “Taiwan independence” forces.’

‘I believe that China has already developed plans for the eventual use of force if that should become necessary and that plan includes preparations for a possible U.S. involvement.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

April 23, 2021
'Xi at the Climate Summit: Domestic Obstacles to Carbon Neutrality'
‘Xi’s reticence at the summit could be driven by domestic considerations. He needs to balance divergent interests between domestic industrial groups and international expectations, the need to show China’s green image and also not be seen as caving to U.S. diplomatic pressure.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
'Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan'
"We advise Japan to stay away from the Taiwan question. The deeper it is embroiled in, the bigger the price it will pay." Communist Party-backed Global Times' editorial.
keep reading
March 11, 2021
China, Ai, & the Coming U.S. Industrial Policy
‘The government will have to orchestrate policies to promote innovation; protect industries and sectors critical to national security; recruit and train talent; incentivize domestic research, development, and production across a range of technologies deemed essential for national security and economic prosperity; and marshal coalitions of allies and partners to support democratic norms.'
keep reading
March 11, 2021
'Why Biden Should Ditch Trump’s China Tariffs'
‘President Joe Biden has to decide whether to rescind his predecessor’s China tariffs.’
keep reading
March 11, 2021
Then There are Semiconductors
‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
keep reading
March 11, 2021
'Hard lesson for HK opposition: Extreme political confrontation is not in the designs of China'
'The radical forces in Hong Kong thought they were strong!’
keep reading
March 11, 2021
'China Turns to Elon Musk as Technology Dreams Sour'
‘China is having its techlash moment. The country’s internet giants, once celebrated as engines of economic vitality, are now scorned for exploiting user data, abusing workers and squelching innovation. Jack Ma, co-founder of the e-commerce titan Alibaba, is a fallen idol, with his companies under government scrutiny for the ways they have secured their grip over the world’s second-largest economy.’
keep reading
March 11, 2021
For Industrial Policy: National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan
‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
keep reading
March 10, 2021
'Beijing replicates its South China Sea tactics in the Himalayas'
‘Emboldened by its cost-free expansion in the South China Sea, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s regime has stepped up efforts to replicate that model in the Himalayas.'
keep reading
March 10, 2021
'China Crackdown on Hong Kong'
‘The scale of the protests really shook Beijing. All the previous protest movements had lasted a few months, at most. This time, there was huge support, and it wasn’t dying down on its own.’
keep reading
March 9, 2021
'Neither China nor the US fits neatly into any one box’ Yuen Yuen Ang
‘Binary narratives lie behind the common misconception that China’s economic success has vindicated autocracy. (The simplistic logic is that if China is not a democracy, it must be an autocracy, and when it prospers, that prosperity must be because of its autocracy). For liberal democracies, this raises the fear that the “China model” poses an ideological challenge to democracy.’
keep reading
March 7, 2021
Part 2 | 'How Biden Can Learn From History in Real Time' Copy
‘ “International relations scholars,” the political scientist Daniel Drezner has written, “are certain about two facts:'
keep reading
March 7, 2021
How the WTO Changed China
'WTO membership, the new consensus goes, has allowed China access to the American and other global economies without forcing it to truly change its behavior, with disastrous consequences for workers and wages around the world.’
keep reading
March 7, 2021
With growth on track, China starts to unwind stimulus
‘China was the first country to open its lending and spending taps in the face of the coronavirus downturn. Now, it is the first to start to close them, giving others a partial preview at the National People’s Congressof what the end of stimulus will look like. The most notable aspect is its gradualism.’
keep reading
March 6, 2021
'Taper test - With growth on track, China starts to unwind stimulus'
‘China was the first country to open its lending and spending taps in the face of the coronavirus downturn. Now, it is the first to start to close them, giving others a partial preview at the National People’s Congressof what the end of stimulus will look like. The most notable aspect is its gradualism.’
keep reading
March 5, 2021
Nursing China’s Debt Hangover
‘China official target of 6% annual economic growth, announced Friday, is so modest it’s clear something else is going on. A plausible theory is that this is part of a strategy to rein in debt.’
keep reading
March 4, 2021
China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong
China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
keep reading
March 4, 2021
'NATO's Shifting Focus to China'
‘Consider, for example, a war escalating over the defense of Taiwan. “We should not forget that the main member state in NATO, the United States, is not only a transatlantic nation, but also a Pacific nation. And the question is, if at a certain stage, the U.S. were to be threatened by China, would that invoke Article 5 in the treaty?"'
keep reading
March 3, 2021
Missing: Has anyone seen Europe’s China plan?
‘Caught between Washington and Beijing, European capitals find themselves in lack of a strategic China policy.’
keep reading
February 28, 2021
Why Beijing was right to rein in Jack Ma's rogue Ant Group IPO
‘In July 2020, just before their IPO application, Ant Financial not only abandoned the word "financial" and renamed themselves Ant Group, they attempted to list not on the Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges, where financial institutions list, but rather on the Shanghai STAR Market, which was created as an exchange for high-tech innovators.’
keep reading
February 27, 2021
The rivalry between America and China will hinge on South-East Asia
‘In the rivalry between China and America, there will be a main zone of contention: South-East Asia. Of the two competitors, China looks the more likely prize-winner.'
keep reading
February 26, 2021
'Inside Xinjiang’s Prison State'
‘After years of first denying the facilities’ existence, then claiming that they had closed, Chinese officials now say the camps are “vocational education and training centers,” necessary to rooting out “extreme thoughts” and no different from correctional facilities in the United States or deradicalization centers in France.’
keep reading
February 24, 2021
Japan Is the New Leader of Asia’s Liberal Order
‘In an era of Chinese bellicosity, North Korean provocations, and a raging pandemic, Japan’s inconspicuous ascent to regional leadership has gone mostly unnoticed.’
keep reading
February 23, 2021
‘Patriots’ Only: Beijing Plans Overhaul of Hong Kong’s Elections
‘China plans to impose restrictions on Hong Kong’s electoral system to root out candidates the Communist Party deems disloyal, a move that could block democracy advocates in the city from running for any elected office.’
keep reading
February 23, 2021
HSBC offers lesson in corporate realpolitik
‘HSBC’s Asia pivot is a lesson in corporate realpolitik. It is just as much a recognition of the new political reality facing every western company that is dependent on doing business with China. Businesses will have to choose between western markets and access to China, and between liberal and authoritarian value systems.’
keep reading
February 23, 2021
Germany Is a Flashpoint in the U.S.-China Cold War
'As goes Germany, so goes Europe — and that’s a real challenge for the U.S. Berlin leads a European bloc that could cast a geopolitical swing vote in the U.S.-China rivalry.’
keep reading
February 22, 2021
Remaking “Made in China”: Beijing’s Industrial Internet Ambitions
‘The Chinese government is placing large bureaucratic and financial bets on upgrading and digitizing its already dominant manufacturing base. Such efforts have coalesced around one key term: the “industrial internet” (工业互联网). The successful application of it across Chinese industry would prolong and elevate the “Made in China” era.’
keep reading
February 22, 2021
How American Free Trade Can Outdo China
‘When it comes to trade, a critical dimension of the U.S. and China competition, America is ceding the field. At the same time, China has expanded its trade footprint. When it comes to trade and investment agreements, China isn’t isolated. The U.S. increasingly is. Now we have to make up for lost ground. America can out-compete China, but first it needs to get back in the game.’
keep reading
February 21, 2021
China’s ‘two sessions’: why this year’s event is so important for Xi Jinping’s vision for the future
‘The ‘Two Sessions,’ the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature, and the top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, begins on March 5 and runs for about two weeks.’
keep reading
February 20, 2021
‘The Future of China’s Past: Rising China’s Next Act'
‘By the Party’s own acknowledgment, Deng’s initial arrangement has run its course. It is therefore time to develop a new understanding that will do for the Party in the next 30 years what Deng’s program did in the previous era.'
keep reading
February 20, 2021
‘UNDERSTANDING DECOUPLING: Macro Trends and Industry Impacts’
‘Comprehensive decoupling is no longer viewed as impossible: if the current trajectory of U.S. decoupling policies continues, a complete rupture would in fact be the most likely outcome. This prospect remains entirely plausible under the Biden administration.’
keep reading
February 20, 2021
‘Europe can’t stay neutral in US-China standoff’
‘China aims to create a world that is not safe for Europe — strategically, economically or ideologically. Xi is actively striving to undermine the stature of democracies in the global order. The more power China amasses, the less tolerant it will become with any government that won’t toe its line. China also represents a long-term economic threat to Europe — not merely because it is an advancing competitor in a global market economy, but because Beijing’s policies are designed to use and abuse that open world economy to eventually dominate it.
keep reading
February 20, 2021
‘Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War'
‘The economy is the primary theater of our conflict with China. It is now clear that the U.S. and Chinese economies are too entangled, particularly in critical sectors such as medicine, defense, and technology.'
keep reading
February 19, 2021
‘No, China is not the EU’s top trading partner'
‘This week the media seized on a report by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, to declare that China surpassed the United States in 2020 to become the EU’s main trade partner. This is simply not true.’
keep reading
February 18, 2021
‘China faces fateful choices, especially involving Taiwan’
'Should Mr Xi order the People’s Liberation Army to take Taiwan, his decision will be shaped by one judgment above all: whether America can stop him. If China ever believes it can complete the task at a bearable cost, it will act.’ ‘
keep reading
February 18, 2021
'An Unsentimental China Policy'
'Jake Sullivan, wrote in Foreign Affairs in 2019, “The era of engagement with China has come to an unceremonious close.”Yet it is worth remembering what engaging China was all about.’ For most of the past half century, efforts to improve ties with the country were not about transforming it. Judged by its own standards, U.S. engagement with China succeeded. It was only after the Cold War that a desire to change China became a prominent objective of U.S. policy.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.