CHINAMacroReporter

U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective

Wang Jisi notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership. But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do. I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.
by

|

CHINADebate

June 5, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
Wang Jisi

‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’

The author is Wang Jisi.

  • Wang is president of Peking University's Institute of International and Strategic Studies for his study of China's relations with the United States and international relations overall.
  • He serves on top advisory boards for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the and the Chinese Communist Party.
  • Foreign Policy has named him one of the Top 100 Public Intellectuals in the world.

And Mr. Wang seems to have insulation that allows him to speak his mind more openly than many others.

The report deviated from the usual line, saying, ‘Both the U.S. and China will lose from “decoupling.” And at this point, it looks like China’s loss may be greater.’

This week, I came across ‘Wang Jisi: Has America declined? Chinese people should have a clear understanding’ [‘王缉思: 美国到底有没有衰落? 中国人应有清醒认识’], an interview that Mr. Wang gave in May. (David Cowig provides a translation here.)

  • His essay in Foreign Affairs was an analysis of U.S.-China relations for a western audience.
  • This interview, published in Chinese, is for a Chinese audience – yet it has a sense that Mr. Wang is unencumbered by censorship or pressure from the government or Party.

He notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership.

  • But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do.
  • I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.

The interview is very long (but well worth reading in full). Below are excerpts representing some Mr. Wang’s key points.

  • You won’t agree with all his arguments. (I certainly didn’t.)

But you will better understand the Chinese point of view on U.S.-China relations, or at least that of an eminent and influential Chinese scholar.

1 | ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

Q: ‘Compared with more than 20 years ago, do you think the United States is in decline?’

Wang Jisi: ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

  • ‘Over the years, although the proportion of the U.S. economy in the world's total economy has declined relatively, it has basically stabilized in the range of 25% to 30%.’

‘Objectively speaking, the overall national strength of the United States is basically stable, but this does not seem to be the mainstream view at home and abroad.’  

  • ‘The only reason people feel the U.S. economy is weak is that they are comparing it to China.’

‘Nevertheless, the overall economic strength of developing countries is rising and that of developed countries overall is declining.’

  • ‘This performance confirms the general thesis of “the East is rising and the West is falling”.’ [Which Xi Jinping so often notes.]

‘Most of the discussions on “whether the United States is in decline” are from a political perspective.’

  • ‘Chairman Mao emphasized in 1957 that “the east wind overcomes the west wind”. At that time, China’s view was “the enemy is declining day by day, and we are getting better day by day”.’
  • ‘Now we say, “the East is rising, and the West is falling”, which is from the same lineage.’

2 | ‘The only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

Q: ‘What do you think are the characteristics of the Biden China strategy?

Mr. Wang: ‘The Biden administration's China strategy has three characteristics.’

‘First, the starting point is to strengthen America’s own power.’

  • ‘The Biden administration has always emphasized dialogue with China “from a position of strength,” because if its own strength declines, the United States will lose its competitiveness.’
  • ‘So their first step is to strengthen the U.S. own strength, enhance domestic economic and technological strength, accelerate infrastructure construction, and “get back” the real economy.’

‘Second, the U.S. wants to unite with some other countries in the world to jointly restrain China, and to establish a multilateral camp against China.’

  • ‘Since the Biden administration, the U.S. has held the “Summit of Democracies” and established the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Mechanism” and the U.S.-UK-Australia “Trilateral Security Partnership,” always emphasizing that the U.S. cannot “fight alone”.’

‘If there is a third point, it is that the United States believes that future competition is mainly a contest of national governance capabilities.’

  • ‘Whoever can avoid obvious policy mistakes will win indirectly through the mistakes of their opponents.’

‘Recognizing that there is nothing it can do to “change China,” the Biden administration can only look to exploit possible Chinese “policy mistakes” to weaken China.’

  • ‘This is why the U.S. sometimes deliberately provokes China into making “reckless” missteps, a move that is clearly purposeful and not as overt as the first two but is an important consideration for the U.S. side.’

‘So the only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

3 | ‘The U.S. does not believe that other civilizations can have its vitality and universality.’

Q: ‘How is this different from the U.S. strategy toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War?’

Mr. Wang: ‘When it comes to the difference between the current U.S. strategy toward China and the strategy of containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, I think it is more reflected in the impact of the differences in civilization and race between the two sides of the game.’

  • ‘On the one hand, the United States believes that the Western civilization system that has continued from ancient Greece and ancient Rome to the present belongs to a kind of "universal value", which represents the direction of the world's progress. They do not believe that there is any other civilization that is so vital and so universal.’
  • ‘On the other, China believes that the 5,000-year historical inheritance of Chinese civilization is sufficient to demonstrate the vitality and advancement of Eastern civilization or Confucian civilization. We have the responsibility and obligation to carry forward the Chinese civilization, which is different from Western Christian civilization, and that the two can go hand in hand.’

‘This brings up the issue of race.’

  • ‘The influence of China, as the representative of the "yellow race," is also rising rapidly.’
  • ‘In the eyes of the American elites represented by white people, it is intolerable for Chinese civilization to replace Christian civilization, so they will do everything possible to prevent China's development.’

4 | ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

Q: ‘Can the Chinese and U.S. economies really decouple?’

Mr. Wang: ‘China and the U.S. are inseparable economically, and economic interests will play a very big role between the two countries.’

  • ‘The interdependence between China and the United States is not a matter of willingness, but a problem that no one can avoid.’

‘The economic and trade structure of the two countries determines that the complete “decoupling” of the United States and China is impossible.’

  • ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

‘From this perspective, the United States cannot completely “decouple” from China.’

‘While for China, there would even be the risk of “strangulation”, so we still have to continue to insist on opening up to the outside world.’

  • ‘If a country has no demand for the outside world at all, that country cannot achieve real development either.’

5 | ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

Q: ‘Do you think the U.S. government's Taiwan policy is undergoing fundamental changes? If there is war in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States intervene?’

Mr. Wang: ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

  • ‘The United States still emphasizes the “One-China Policy,” but that policy has never included recognizing Taiwan as a part of China .’

‘The U.S. is ambiguous on this issue, recognizing only the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government representing China.’

  • ‘This shows the fundamental difference between the U.S. One-China Policy and our One-China principle.’

‘We believe that:’

  1. ‘There is only one China in the world,’
  2. ‘The government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and’
  3. ‘Taiwan is a part of China.’

‘These three sentences are linked together.’

  • ‘The United States has accepted only the first two sentences.'
  • 'At the same time, it haskept walking a tightrope on the third sentence, neither denying that Taiwan is an independent political entity nor supporting “Taiwan independence”.’

‘In my opinion, the U.S. does not fully support "Taiwan independence".’

  • ‘Successive U.S. governments have used the Taiwan issue to keep China in check.’
  • ‘In the unlikely event that “Taiwan independence” does materialize, the U.S. would lose the leverage to use Taiwan as a counterweight to China.’
  • ‘Moreover, "Taiwan independence" will trigger a war between China and the United States, and the United States will not gain much.’

‘For the U.S., the best state of affairs is that Taiwan is neither under the control of the Mainland, nor does it transform itself into a legally “independent Taiwan”.’

  • ‘This way it can continue to reap the benefits” on both sides.’

‘What the United States has always supported is that Taiwan is neither reunified nor independent.’

  • ‘And this basic principle has not changed.’

‘The Biden administration has increased its efforts to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to pressure China.’

  • ‘But I don’t think the bottom line has changed.’

‘As for whether or not the U.S. will intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and the extent of its involvement, I think it is difficult to pre-determine.’

  • ‘It mainly depends on the form and scale of the mainland's "use of force against Taiwan".’

‘We must retain the option of "using force against Taiwan" as bottom-line thinking.’

  • ‘As the Tsai Ing-wen administration continues to escalate provocations against the Mainland, we will also emphasize the credibility and urgency of resolving the Taiwan issue by force, so as to form a stronger deterrent to the “Taiwan independence” forces.’

‘I believe that China has already developed plans for the eventual use of force if that should become necessary and that plan includes preparations for a possible U.S. involvement.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

June 12, 2022
'The competitiveness of China is eroding.'
Understanding the drivers of China’s rise to supply chain prominence gives (me anyway) insights to help analyze the changes – or not – of ‘decoupling.’
keep reading
May 30, 2022
Is Xi Jinping China's Biggest Problem?
And while the impact of Zero Covid may be relatively short-lived, the impact of Mr. Xi’s return to the socialist path will be felt for a very long time, both in China and the world. So the impact will no doubt be felt as long as Mr. Xi leads China.
keep reading
May 22, 2022
The Next U.S.-China Crisis: CEOs & Boards Are Not Ready
‘The bad news is that very few corporations engaged in China have contingency plans or long-term strategies to hedge against the downside risks of growing geopolitical competition.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'Another China-Related Risk for Investors & Corporations: Taiwan'
"Taiwan poses the biggest geopolitical risk in Asia and is likely to only increase, a reason it has to be built into investors’ [and corporates' models]" according to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.
keep reading
May 5, 2021
'Western companies in China succumb to Stockholm syndrome'
‘Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a point when he calls Delta Air Lines “the height of hypocrisy” for opposing voter legislation in the US state of Georgia while partnering with a government he accuses of being “actively engaged in genocide” in Xinjiang.’
keep reading
May 4, 2021
'The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties'
At their summit in April, ‘after years of veiled messaging Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga U.S. President Joe Biden, ‘formally acknowledged that they are working together to deter China’s military power in Asia and compete with China economically.’
keep reading
May 3, 2021
'How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?'
‘China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar’s global dominance.’ ‘Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country’s technology giants and traditional banks.’
keep reading
May 2, 2021
'Fanning the Flames of War'
I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
keep reading
May 2, 2021
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
keep reading
April 30, 2021
'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'
‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
keep reading
April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark
Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden’s First 100 Days: Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition'
‘Biden is focused on accumulating as much leverage as possible to deal with China from a position of strength and to dispel the growing Chinese perception that the United States is a power in decline.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What Joe Biden Said About China in His First Speech to Joint Session of Congress'
“We’re in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century.”
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden's Speech Calls for U.S. to Take On China and Russia'
‘President Biden justified his broad vision to remake the American economy as the necessary step to survive long-run competition with China
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What does Biden’s first 100 days tell us about his approach to China?'
‘What we have learned from the first 100 days is that we are likely to have both a confrontational and competitive relationship with China, similar to Trump’s policy but with some important nuances.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'China's Response to Biden's Speech'
‘It is natural for the two sides to have competition in some fields, but we should advocate fair competition, like competing with each other for excellence in a racing field, not beating each other on a wrestling arena.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'The New Age of Autarky'
‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'China Inside Out: A Conversation with Susan Shirk & Tony Saich'
‘The centralization of power, quite predictably, leads to this kind of echo chamber effect, which is really quite dangerous. And it's something that we should be factoring in when we think about how to deal with China now.’
keep reading
April 24, 2021
'Xinhua News Agency on the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021" in the U.S.' | 新华社评美“2021年战略竞争法案”
‘The bill is full of Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice, wantonly misinterpreting, slandering and discrediting China's development strategy and domestic and foreign policies, and grossly interfering in China's internal affairs.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'A new era of bipartisanship on China in Congress?
‘The Strategic Competition Act codifies a bipartisan U.S. position on a range of China-related issues and telegraphs to U.S. allies the federal government is unified.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'Xi at the Climate Summit: Domestic Obstacles to Carbon Neutrality'
‘Xi’s reticence at the summit could be driven by domestic considerations. He needs to balance divergent interests between domestic industrial groups and international expectations, the need to show China’s green image and also not be seen as caving to U.S. diplomatic pressure.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
'Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan'
"We advise Japan to stay away from the Taiwan question. The deeper it is embroiled in, the bigger the price it will pay." Communist Party-backed Global Times' editorial.
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Xi calls for new world order (again)'
‘We must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others, or allow unilateralism pursued by certain countries [read America] to set the pace for the whole world.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Beijing won total control of Hong Kong. Now, the "brainwashing" begins.'
April 15 was not a normal Thursday in Hong Kong. That occasion, the first “National Security Education Day” since China imposed a tough security law in June, was the most visible display of Hong Kong’s fall from a relatively free, boisterous territory to an ­Orwellian place that resembles the repressive mainland.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
‘The US-Japan Joint Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs'
‘The US-Japan Joint Leaders' Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs and severely violates basic norms governing international relations. China deplores and rejects it.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
'Tokyo Flexes Its Talons'
‘The alliance with Japan is the single most important international relationship America has.’
keep reading
April 18, 2021
'Taiwan in US-Japan statement: show of resolve or diplomatic calculus?'
"The statement shunned more specific language like 'defend Taiwan' to avoid unnecessarily provoking China."
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Is growth in China soaring or slowing?: The answer depends on how you calculate growth'
‘It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.’
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Margaret Ng's Statement at Conclusion of Today's Trial'
‘There is no right so precious to the people of Hong Kong as the freedom of expression and the freedom of peaceful assembly.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
U.S.-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. - JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”
‘President Biden and Prime Minister Suga exchanged views on the impact of China’s actions on peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the world, and shared their concerns over Chinese activities that are inconsistent with the international rules-based order, including the use of economic and other forms of coercion.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Breaking China’s Stranglehold on the U.S. Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain'
‘China’s control of the supply of usable, refined rare earth elements undermines U.S. security and that of its allies.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'China’s economy springs back from pandemic hit with record growth'
“The headline year-on-year data really doesn’t tell us the story of how the economy has performed in the first quarter . . . in fact that performance was a bit disappointing. The silver lining is that March was better than the first two months.”
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Hong Kong Newspaper Tycoon Jimmy Lai Jailed Over Role in Peaceful Protests'
“The wrongful prosecution, conviction and sentencing of these activists underlines the Hong Kong government’s intention to eliminate all political opposition in the city,”
keep reading
April 15, 2021
'Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Is a Blow for China'
‘President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan at the end of summer is likely to confound Chinese calculations, both economic and geopolitical.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.