CHINAMacroReporter

U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective

Wang Jisi notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership. But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do. I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.
by

|

CHINADebate

June 5, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
Wang Jisi

‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’

The author is Wang Jisi.

  • Wang is president of Peking University's Institute of International and Strategic Studies for his study of China's relations with the United States and international relations overall.
  • He serves on top advisory boards for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the and the Chinese Communist Party.
  • Foreign Policy has named him one of the Top 100 Public Intellectuals in the world.

And Mr. Wang seems to have insulation that allows him to speak his mind more openly than many others.

The report deviated from the usual line, saying, ‘Both the U.S. and China will lose from “decoupling.” And at this point, it looks like China’s loss may be greater.’

This week, I came across ‘Wang Jisi: Has America declined? Chinese people should have a clear understanding’ [‘王缉思: 美国到底有没有衰落? 中国人应有清醒认识’], an interview that Mr. Wang gave in May. (David Cowig provides a translation here.)

  • His essay in Foreign Affairs was an analysis of U.S.-China relations for a western audience.
  • This interview, published in Chinese, is for a Chinese audience – yet it has a sense that Mr. Wang is unencumbered by censorship or pressure from the government or Party.

He notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership.

  • But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do.
  • I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.

The interview is very long (but well worth reading in full). Below are excerpts representing some Mr. Wang’s key points.

  • You won’t agree with all his arguments. (I certainly didn’t.)

But you will better understand the Chinese point of view on U.S.-China relations, or at least that of an eminent and influential Chinese scholar.

1 | ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

Q: ‘Compared with more than 20 years ago, do you think the United States is in decline?’

Wang Jisi: ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

  • ‘Over the years, although the proportion of the U.S. economy in the world's total economy has declined relatively, it has basically stabilized in the range of 25% to 30%.’

‘Objectively speaking, the overall national strength of the United States is basically stable, but this does not seem to be the mainstream view at home and abroad.’  

  • ‘The only reason people feel the U.S. economy is weak is that they are comparing it to China.’

‘Nevertheless, the overall economic strength of developing countries is rising and that of developed countries overall is declining.’

  • ‘This performance confirms the general thesis of “the East is rising and the West is falling”.’ [Which Xi Jinping so often notes.]

‘Most of the discussions on “whether the United States is in decline” are from a political perspective.’

  • ‘Chairman Mao emphasized in 1957 that “the east wind overcomes the west wind”. At that time, China’s view was “the enemy is declining day by day, and we are getting better day by day”.’
  • ‘Now we say, “the East is rising, and the West is falling”, which is from the same lineage.’

2 | ‘The only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

Q: ‘What do you think are the characteristics of the Biden China strategy?

Mr. Wang: ‘The Biden administration's China strategy has three characteristics.’

‘First, the starting point is to strengthen America’s own power.’

  • ‘The Biden administration has always emphasized dialogue with China “from a position of strength,” because if its own strength declines, the United States will lose its competitiveness.’
  • ‘So their first step is to strengthen the U.S. own strength, enhance domestic economic and technological strength, accelerate infrastructure construction, and “get back” the real economy.’

‘Second, the U.S. wants to unite with some other countries in the world to jointly restrain China, and to establish a multilateral camp against China.’

  • ‘Since the Biden administration, the U.S. has held the “Summit of Democracies” and established the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Mechanism” and the U.S.-UK-Australia “Trilateral Security Partnership,” always emphasizing that the U.S. cannot “fight alone”.’

‘If there is a third point, it is that the United States believes that future competition is mainly a contest of national governance capabilities.’

  • ‘Whoever can avoid obvious policy mistakes will win indirectly through the mistakes of their opponents.’

‘Recognizing that there is nothing it can do to “change China,” the Biden administration can only look to exploit possible Chinese “policy mistakes” to weaken China.’

  • ‘This is why the U.S. sometimes deliberately provokes China into making “reckless” missteps, a move that is clearly purposeful and not as overt as the first two but is an important consideration for the U.S. side.’

‘So the only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

3 | ‘The U.S. does not believe that other civilizations can have its vitality and universality.’

Q: ‘How is this different from the U.S. strategy toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War?’

Mr. Wang: ‘When it comes to the difference between the current U.S. strategy toward China and the strategy of containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, I think it is more reflected in the impact of the differences in civilization and race between the two sides of the game.’

  • ‘On the one hand, the United States believes that the Western civilization system that has continued from ancient Greece and ancient Rome to the present belongs to a kind of "universal value", which represents the direction of the world's progress. They do not believe that there is any other civilization that is so vital and so universal.’
  • ‘On the other, China believes that the 5,000-year historical inheritance of Chinese civilization is sufficient to demonstrate the vitality and advancement of Eastern civilization or Confucian civilization. We have the responsibility and obligation to carry forward the Chinese civilization, which is different from Western Christian civilization, and that the two can go hand in hand.’

‘This brings up the issue of race.’

  • ‘The influence of China, as the representative of the "yellow race," is also rising rapidly.’
  • ‘In the eyes of the American elites represented by white people, it is intolerable for Chinese civilization to replace Christian civilization, so they will do everything possible to prevent China's development.’

4 | ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

Q: ‘Can the Chinese and U.S. economies really decouple?’

Mr. Wang: ‘China and the U.S. are inseparable economically, and economic interests will play a very big role between the two countries.’

  • ‘The interdependence between China and the United States is not a matter of willingness, but a problem that no one can avoid.’

‘The economic and trade structure of the two countries determines that the complete “decoupling” of the United States and China is impossible.’

  • ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

‘From this perspective, the United States cannot completely “decouple” from China.’

‘While for China, there would even be the risk of “strangulation”, so we still have to continue to insist on opening up to the outside world.’

  • ‘If a country has no demand for the outside world at all, that country cannot achieve real development either.’

5 | ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

Q: ‘Do you think the U.S. government's Taiwan policy is undergoing fundamental changes? If there is war in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States intervene?’

Mr. Wang: ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

  • ‘The United States still emphasizes the “One-China Policy,” but that policy has never included recognizing Taiwan as a part of China .’

‘The U.S. is ambiguous on this issue, recognizing only the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government representing China.’

  • ‘This shows the fundamental difference between the U.S. One-China Policy and our One-China principle.’

‘We believe that:’

  1. ‘There is only one China in the world,’
  2. ‘The government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and’
  3. ‘Taiwan is a part of China.’

‘These three sentences are linked together.’

  • ‘The United States has accepted only the first two sentences.'
  • 'At the same time, it haskept walking a tightrope on the third sentence, neither denying that Taiwan is an independent political entity nor supporting “Taiwan independence”.’

‘In my opinion, the U.S. does not fully support "Taiwan independence".’

  • ‘Successive U.S. governments have used the Taiwan issue to keep China in check.’
  • ‘In the unlikely event that “Taiwan independence” does materialize, the U.S. would lose the leverage to use Taiwan as a counterweight to China.’
  • ‘Moreover, "Taiwan independence" will trigger a war between China and the United States, and the United States will not gain much.’

‘For the U.S., the best state of affairs is that Taiwan is neither under the control of the Mainland, nor does it transform itself into a legally “independent Taiwan”.’

  • ‘This way it can continue to reap the benefits” on both sides.’

‘What the United States has always supported is that Taiwan is neither reunified nor independent.’

  • ‘And this basic principle has not changed.’

‘The Biden administration has increased its efforts to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to pressure China.’

  • ‘But I don’t think the bottom line has changed.’

‘As for whether or not the U.S. will intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and the extent of its involvement, I think it is difficult to pre-determine.’

  • ‘It mainly depends on the form and scale of the mainland's "use of force against Taiwan".’

‘We must retain the option of "using force against Taiwan" as bottom-line thinking.’

  • ‘As the Tsai Ing-wen administration continues to escalate provocations against the Mainland, we will also emphasize the credibility and urgency of resolving the Taiwan issue by force, so as to form a stronger deterrent to the “Taiwan independence” forces.’

‘I believe that China has already developed plans for the eventual use of force if that should become necessary and that plan includes preparations for a possible U.S. involvement.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

April 14, 2021
The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World
In this issue of China Macro Commentary, I have focused just on the ‘Digital Silk Road’ and how it supports the business expansion of Chinese tech companies, and on BRI ‘connectivity’ projects: ports (China is involved in 93 around the world) and on the growing China-Europe freight trains traffic (This wasn't covered sufficiently in the Report, so I included a recent article from the Wall Street Journal), plus on the U.S.'s failure to meet the BRI challenge.
keep reading
April 13, 2021
'2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community'
‘China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms.’
keep reading
April 13, 2021
In Battle With U.S. for Global Sway, China Showers Money on Europe’s Neglected Areas
‘The number of freight trains running between China and Europe topped 12,400 last year, 50% higher than in 2019 and seven times that of 2016, according to Chinese authorities.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 4 | Is China Exporting Inflation?
'‘China has its own issues. If you look at the CPI inflation, it looks more moderate. ‘If you look at the producer price inflation, it looks more severe.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 2 | Will the Gender Imbalance Keep Housing Prices Firm in the Medium Term?
‘The part of housing prices caused by gender-ratio imbalance is not going to go away in the medium term. But the government has ways to create volatility in the housing market.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 3 | Property 2022: Stabilization or Growth?
‘The goal is to stabilize housing prices while having housing sector grow.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-3 | Analyzing the Gender Imbalance Data
‘Compare these with graph showing the impact of the same factors on rental prices...'
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-2 | Gender Imbalance as a Driver of Housing Prices
‘Why does gender imbalance have such an outsize impact on China’s housing prices?'
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 5 | Will Xi Continue to Favor the State Over the Private Sector?
‘He wants to see a bigger role for the state in the economy. But in the last two years, he has done some course correction. For example, after talking up the role of state-owned firms and building stronger, bigger state-owned firms, he is talking about the equal importance for the private sector.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 7 | Why Did Beijing Ban Online Tutoring?
‘Each policy in isolation – whether its banning online tutoring or protecting data or enforcing anti-monopoly regulations or any other - has its rationale.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
What Are Your Top of Mind Concerns?
I asked the participants what are their top of mind concerns about China.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Getting (Xi Jingping's) Priorities Straight
How do you make investment or business decisions in the face of the uncertainties created by Xi Jinping's reshaping China's economy? In this issue, I'll give you a few different ideas on how you might deal with that uncertainty.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Look Through the Rights Lenses
Getting down more to the nitty-gritty, if you’re evaluating a sector or a company, get your lenses right to get the details right.. Stonehorn’s Sam Le Cornu gives a good example of this in a Bloomberg interview.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Sometimes You Just Have to Roll the Dice
Telling someone to align him or herself with Beijing's priorities still is generally good advice.And, when I tell you what those priorities are, I know I am right - until I'm not.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Watch What Beijing Says - and Does
Besides listening to Xi Jinping, you can discern Beijing’s priorities and its likely actions through its big policies - and this is my point here.
keep reading
November 23, 2021
'Biden Has a Summit With Xi, but No Strategy for China'
‘Neither Taiwan nor strategic arms are a hot campaign topic, and China is not yet at the forefront of public consciousness. To ensure America’s eventual strategy is workable, political leaders need to debate the challenges so citizens can appreciate the implications of the choices they will have to make.’
keep reading
November 23, 2021
Xi Jinping's Leadership: 'The Inevitable Outcome of History'
Mr. Xi is the hero of a Resolution on the history of the Chinese Communist Party that painted his leadership as the inevitable outcome of history and all but gave him his third term. Tony Saich of the Harvard Kennedy School did a terrific analysis on this - you'll find it below, after my take.
keep reading
November 23, 2021
'Xi Jinping has made sure history is now officially on his side'
‘While there are murmurs of opposition, the historic plenary session would suggest that the future is in Xi’s hands. However, when politics is so deeply personalised and centralised, there is only one person to blame if things go wrong. Unless, of course, we get a new resolution on history that tells us who led the party astray, despite Xi’s earnest attempts to keep policy on the straight and narrow.’
keep reading
November 9, 2021
'America's China Plan: A Proposal' by Clyde Prestowitz
Outcompeting China and avoiding global extension of its authoritarian and coercive policies and practices is not really about China. It’s about America.
keep reading
October 27, 2021
Why China Won't Invade Taiwan - Yet
Forget Evergrande and the energy crunch. After the recent flurry of alarming headlines, here’s the question I get most often these days from CEO’s and institutional investors: Will China invade Taiwan in the next few years?
keep reading
October 17, 2021
An Energy Crunch. China's Latest Crisis. They Just Keep Piling Up.
‍‘Over the next six months or more, the energy crunch in China will be an even bigger challenge than Evergrande. Will make the Evergrande problem look tiny and has huge global implications. The lights go out in China!’ one experienced and very well-respected reader of long residence in China wrote to me in response the last issue on Evergrande.
keep reading
October 7, 2021
Just How Contagious is Evergrande?
Just as a personal crisis can lead you to dig deeper into yourself, so the rapid-fire events in China - with trillions of dollars of business and investment on the line - have led us to (finally) go deeper into how China works – and to come to grips with uncertainties caused by Xi Jinping’s recent moves to reshape the Chinese economy and the Party’s social contract with the Chinese people.
keep reading
September 27, 2021
'This Time Feels Different'
Just when we thought we were getting used to Xi Jinping’s tech reforms and social-engineering regulations, the Evergrande crisis heats up.
keep reading
September 19, 2021
AUKUS: A New World Order?
‍In case you passed over the news of AUKUS, the new strategic alliance among the U.S, the U.K., and Australia, here a few headlines to encourage a deeper look.
keep reading
September 7, 2021
Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.
Today's issue is a heads up on what may be Xi Jinping's efforts to reshape Chinese society.
keep reading
August 28, 2021
The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?
Breaking through the blow-by-blow reporting that started when the Taliban began its sweep to victory are the geopolitical analyses of who gains and who loses in Afghanistan.
keep reading
August 15, 2021
'Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State'
‘Mr. Xi is determined to bring the creators of wealth under the control of the one-party state.’
keep reading
August 15, 2021
'Are you tired of losing yet, America?'
As I write this, Taliban forces have entered Kabul and are reportedly occupying the Presidential Palace.
keep reading
August 15, 2021
China Economy: Industrial Production Down, Demand Resilient
China’s industrial production down 10%. Demand resilient.
keep reading
August 15, 2021
'China Signals More Regulation for Businesses in Coming Years'
‘The State Council’s statement provides a guiding context to interpret current regulatory thrusts. The blueprint as an attempt by Chinese authorities to help investors understand the motives behind the regulatory push.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
‘Global investors shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
'Shocked Investors Scour Xi’s Old Speeches to Find Next Target'
‘While China’s policy moves can feel ad hoc particularly to foreign investors, the changes are quite targeted on certain sectors.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You
‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
'China Wants Manufacturing—Not the Internet—to Lead the Economy'
‘Social media, e-commerce and other consumer internet companies are nice to have. But in his view national greatness doesn’t depend on having the world’s finest group chats or ride-sharing.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'Stock Market: China Doesn’t Care How Much Money Investors Lose'
‘Does Beijing not care how much money foreign investors have lost? Does the government really want to close China Inc.’s access to the deep pool of global capital? The short answer is, no, the government doesn’t care.
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'Xi's Four Pillars of Regulation'
‘Broadly, Beijing is concerned about four pillars of stability: banking, anti-trust regulation, data security and social equality. All of Beijing’s major interventions reflect these concerns.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders, and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook,’ writes Reuters’ Tom Westbrook.
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.