CHINAMacroReporter

1 | The first U.S.-EU alliance against China

Building U.S. - EU Coalitions to Counter China: Why China Is Joe Biden's Biggest Asset

"Europeans will have to step up their reaction against China after insults, intimidation and sanctions against scholars and MPs. This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully."
by

|

CHINADebate

March 25, 2021
1 | The first U.S.-EU alliance against China
"Europeans will have to step up their reaction against China after insults, intimidation and sanctions against scholars and MPs. This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully."

'By the time Antony Blinken's plane touched down in Brussels on Monday night,' writes Stephan Lau of Politico EU, 'America's top diplomat had already acquired an unlikely ally in his push for a deeper transatlantic partnership: China.'

  • 'When Blinken meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Wednesday, however, he will find the mood has shifted and that he has an unexpectedly ripe opportunity to press Europe to reconsider its choice and join the Americans.'
  • Here's why.  

As has been often noted, the chief thing that distinguishes President Biden’s China strategy from the previous administration’s is the aim to create coalitions to confront China on specific issues.

  • The problem with that is that a lot of other countries, especially in the EU, don’t seem ready to get on board.

Thank goodness for Mr. Biden that China is lending a helping hand.

  • The most recent example was on display this week.

‘This week Joe Biden made good on his campaign promise to work more with allies to pressure China, coordinating with U.S. partners to impose sanctions over alleged human-rights abuses in Xinjiang,’ says Bloomberg.

  • ‘Beijing’s response: Hit back at the allies as hard as possible.’

As the Editorial Board of the Financial Times notes:

  • ‘Co-ordinated western sanctions imposed this week on a small number of Chinese officials for their role in human rights abuses in Xinjiang are welcome if overdue.’
  • ‘On Monday the US, EU, UK and Canada together imposed asset freezes and travel bans on four officials and a security organisation implicated in the persecution and internment of Uyghurs.’

‘The retribution is modest given the crimes.'

  • 'But for the first time since the Tiananmen Square protests were crushed in 1989, western governments have taken co-ordinated action to punish human rights abuses in China.’

Given that China is keen to do its best to prevent the U.S. from bringing the EU into further coalitions – ‘Beijing has in recent years used a divide-and-conquer approach with national capitals to undermine a common EU front’ - you would think that China would have made a measured response. Nope.

  • ‘China retaliated against EU sanctions by punishing several parliamentarians, analysts, and Merics, a think-tank on China based in Berlin known for its judicious analysis.’
  • ‘It also targeted the committee of 27 member-state ambassadors to the EU who oversee foreign and security policy.’

‘With its Xinjiang abuses and overreaction on sanctions, Beijing has managed the rare feat of uniting the EU on a foreign policy issue.’

  • ‘By targeting critics of its actions and analysts who refuse to toe its line, Beijing has demonstrated its totalitarian mindset.’
  • ‘By punishing European Parliament members, it has made it all but impossible for that legislature to ratify the “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment” with China.’

This last point in particular is what makes China’s strong reaction to the EU’s relatively innocuous sanctions hard to understand.

  • Some have said that China didn’t have that much to gain, so perhaps Beijing doesn’t care if the  “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment” isn’t ratified. ·
  • Or, as others have suggested, one of China’s purposes in the deal was to drive a wedge between the U.S. and the EU. In that case, the work is already done. ·
  • Whatever the reason, China made it clear that asserting what it considers its rights is more important than this agreement.
  • [Pro Tip: If your corporate or investment strategy in any way depends on the EU’s ratifying “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment” with China, it’s time to start revising your strategy.]  

More

CHINAMacroReporter

June 12, 2022
'The competitiveness of China is eroding.'
Understanding the drivers of China’s rise to supply chain prominence gives (me anyway) insights to help analyze the changes – or not – of ‘decoupling.’
keep reading
June 5, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
Wang Jisi notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership. But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do. I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.
keep reading
May 30, 2022
Is Xi Jinping China's Biggest Problem?
And while the impact of Zero Covid may be relatively short-lived, the impact of Mr. Xi’s return to the socialist path will be felt for a very long time, both in China and the world. So the impact will no doubt be felt as long as Mr. Xi leads China.
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'
‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Sex and the Chinese Economy'
‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'
‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
keep reading
May 20, 2021
'Apple in China: No Plan B'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
keep reading
May 20, 2021
'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'
‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
keep reading
May 20, 2021
'Apple held hostage by its Chinese puzzle'
"The massive and complete supply chain ecosystem in China is key to the iPhone maker's success, but it has also created a gigantic organism that would struggle to move somewhere else."
keep reading
May 20, 2021
‘Censorship, Surveillance and Profits: A Hard Bargain for Apple in China’
‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
keep reading
May 20, 2021
Apple in China
‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
keep reading
May 20, 2021
'Apple Reaches $2 Trillion'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’
‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’
‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
keep reading
May 15, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'
‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
keep reading
May 15, 2021
'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'
‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
'After Xi: China's potentially destabilising succession crisis'
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’ ‘In doing so, he has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
keep reading
May 12, 2021
The Poem that Cost Billions
The billion dollar losses that came from quoting an 1,100-year-old poem, toWhy foreign companies in China have Stockholm Syndrome
keep reading
May 10, 2021
'A 1,100-Year-Old Poem Cost Meituan’s Outspoken CEO US $2.5 Billions'
‘On Monday, because of an 1,100-year old poem about events 2,200 years ago posted by the founder of food delivery giant Meituan, investors panicked, and sank the company’s market cap by $15.6 billion. And Meituan CEO Wang Xing, who posted the poem, lost $2.5 billion of his wealth.’
keep reading
May 9, 2021
'The Housing Bubble That Just Won’t Pop'
‘China’s cities are plagued by a diverging trend: high demand and exorbitant prices for residential properties in tier 1 cities and yet an oversupply in smaller, lower-tiered cities.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'Would China really invade Taiwan?'
‘Is Taiwan really "the most dangerous place on earth?" No. Or at least, not right now.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'Don't Help China By Hyping Risk Of War Over Taiwan'
‘China is marshaling its full range of capabilities to intensify pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of conflict.’ ‘Beijing's goal is to constantly remind Taiwan's people of its growing power, induce pessimism about Taiwan's future, deepen splits within the island's political system and show that outside powers are impotent to counter its flexes.' ‘Its approach is guided by the Chinese aphorism, "Once ripe, the melon will drop from its stem [瓜熟蒂落]," ’‘This strategy may require more time than war, but it would come at less cost and risk to Beijing.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'China Threat: A "perception gap" between the U.S. and Taiwan'
‘While the U.S. talks up the medium-term military threat, the democratic island sees the moves as part of a bigger, more immediate problem: "gray zone" warfare from Beijing that is meant to wear down the morale of not just the Taiwanese military, but also the island's people.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'The most dangerous place on Earth'
‘Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America.’ ‘Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'
‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.