CHINAMacroReporter

Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'

Biden Shows his Hand on China

‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’
by

Walter Russell Mead | Bard College

|

The Wall Street Journal

January 27, 2021
Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'

‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’

‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’

  • ‘Initiating his China policy with the most aggressive concatenation of moves against a foreign power that any peacetime U.S. administration has ever launched so early on, President Biden has thrown down a gauntlet that Beijing is unlikely to ignore.’

‘Besides issuing a formal invitation to Taiwan’s top Washington representative to attend the inauguration (the first such invitation since the U.S. established formal relations with Beijing in 1979), the incoming team has pledged to continue arms sales to Taiwan and indicated that it wants to delay high-level U.S.-China talks until it consults with close allies—a stand that China will interpret as a rebuff.’

  • ‘As if this weren’t enough, Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken announced that he concurs with his predecessor Mike Pompeo’s finding that China is engaged in a genocide against its mostly Muslim Uighur minority in Xinjiang province.’
  • ‘Taken with the previously planned dispatch of a naval strike group to the South China Sea, it all amounts to a stern message to Beijing.’

‘These moves must be troubling for those who hoped that Mr. Biden would “prioritise global issues over great power competition,” as Anne-Marie Slaughter, who served as the State Department director of policy planning during the Obama administration, put it in a recent op-ed for the Financial Times.’

‘It’s not entirely clear how coordinated the new measures are.’

  • ‘The late designation of Chinese behavior as genocide by the Trump-era State Department in particular put Mr. Biden in a difficult spot.’
  • ‘He had called the repression of the Uighurs a genocide on the campaign trail, but stump-speech rhetoric has no legal force.’
  • ‘Once the State Department weighed in officially, Mr. Biden couldn’t walk back a designation he was on record as endorsing without looking weak.’

‘It remains to be seen whether the administration will attempt to tone down the strong message sent by its early actions.’

  • ‘The combination of the hard line on Taiwan and the genocide designation could be the foundation of a policy mix that is significantly more provocative than even some China hawks in the new administration wanted—and far more hawkish than the human-rights advocates supporting the genocide designation understood.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

September 26, 2022
China Coup: How Worried Should Xi Be?
‘Xi and the phrase #ChinaCoup trended on social media after tens of thousands of users spread unconfirmed rumors that the president was detained and overthrown by the China's People's Liberation Army.’
keep reading
September 18, 2022
'How do you spy on China?'
Many of you have asked about my own take on the issues I analyze in these pages and about my background. Today is some of both.I am honored to have been interviewed by the terrific Jeremy Goldkorn, editor-in-chief of The China Project. Below is part of that interview.
keep reading
September 5, 2022
Xi’s Dangerous Radical Secrecy
In a world of political hardball, investigative reporting, and tabloids, we know a lot (if not always accurate or unspun) about world leaders, especially those in functioning democracies. Not so with Xi Jinping.
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper folds under government pressure'
Apple Daily was much more than a newspaper. To its fans, it was a defender of freedoms. To its foes, it was the defiler of national sovereignty.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong
Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
keep reading
June 20, 2021
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
keep reading
June 20, 2021
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
'Back-to-Back Rebukes of China Mark a Turning Point'
‘The one-two punch of public criticism smacks directly into Mr. Xi’s assertion that China won’t stand for lecturing by other nations, suggesting anxiety in key capitals is prompting governments to seek alignment with the U.S. over attempting to manage the relationship with Beijing on their own.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
'Meet the New Chinese Economy, Same as the Old Chinese Economy'
If a recovery led by investment in real estate and industrial production, with consumption lagging behind, sounds familiar, it may be because the same could be said of the makeup of China’s growth before Covid-19.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
Part 1 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
‘Beijing is moving swiftly to protect its factories and workplaces from rising costs.’ ‘Still, rising prices in China, by far the world’s biggest manufacturer and exporter, could be felt around the world.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
Bernie Sanders: 'Don’t Start a New Cold War With China'
‘The pendulum of conventional wisdom in Washington has now swung from being far too optimistic about the opportunities presented by unfettered trade with China to being far too hawkish about the threats posed by the richer, stronger, more authoritarian China that has been one result of that increased trade.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
Part 2 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
“Is China exporting inflation? In renminbi terms, it’s not so obvious. But in U.S. dollar terms, it starts to get more sizable.” ’
keep reading
June 13, 2021
'Forget about China': Clyde Prestowitz
Clyde Prestowitz has influenced U.S. foreign trade and investment policy for many decades, both inside and outside government.
keep reading
June 9, 2021
'Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win'
‘Biden worries that China is in competition for America, and not only that—they might win. This belief underpins the Biden doctrine.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
'From the G7 to a D-10: Strengthening democratic cooperation for today's challenges'
‘A “Democratic-10” or “D-10” is aimed at rallying the world’s most powerful democracies around a common cause— advancing a rules-based democratic order based on shared values and common interests.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
Biden Worries China Might Win
‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
Joe Biden: 'My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies'
‘This is a defining question of our time: Can democracies come together to deliver real results for our people in a rapidly changing world?’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
'NATO & China's Challenges to Europe'
‘Even though China does not pose a direct military threat to NATO, contrary to Russia or terrorist groups, Beijing’s growing economic influence and diplomatic assertiveness in Europe coupled with its growing military relationship with Russia do have major implications for the transatlantic economy as well as its security.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
5 | Two Caveats
‘Highlighting the strategic questionability of China’s policies doesn’t mean that Beijing’s fears of the outside world are completely unjustified.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
1 | 'Wolf Warriors Killed China’s Grand Strategy—and We'll All Come to Miss It'
‘The predominant feature of Chinese conduct today is not grand strategy but a belligerent, defensive nationalism that lashes out without heed of consequences.’ Sometime in 2020, China came unmoored from its grand strategy.
keep reading
June 3, 2021
4 | Why China Abandoned Its Grand Strategy
‘The most persuasive explanation is that China has poisoned itself through its own rhetoric.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
6 | The Risks & the Dangers
‘The real danger is that once toxin has spread through the system, there is no knowing where it will end.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
2 | Blame It on Xi
‘In China’s case, the Xi era has seen the accumulation of somewhat counterproductive policies that catalyzed a breakdown.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
3 | Enter the ‘Wolf Warriors’
‘What changed in 2020 was that nationalism for its own sake became the predominant motif of Chinese conduct.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
Killing China's Grand Strategy
Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
keep reading
May 30, 2021
'Final Thoughts'
'Just as Brzezinski foresaw the two new contending blocs –– requiring greater “geostrategic skill” –– that are forming today, Kissinger has emphasized the unprecedented dangers that AI could introduce into a divided world.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
China's ‘Anti-Hegemonist Bloc’
‘To counter U.S. coalition building, China has enhanced its diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with both Russia and Iran in recent months, resulting in the closest ties these countries have had in the post-Cold War era.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
Postscript: China Doubts U.S. Allies Support
'Chinese leadership is also cynical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led Cold War-style bloc.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
Biden’s ‘Anti-China Bloc’
‘Throughout President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office, his administration has largely continued the Trump administration’s hawkish approach toward China.’ ‘President Biden has also made international coalition building to confront the growing power and influence of China his primary foreign policy initiative.’ ‘Chinese leaders and the public are not convinced by the statements recently made by President Biden that these U.S.-led alliances are “not anti-Chinese” and that the United States is “not looking for confrontation” with China.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy
And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
keep reading
May 30, 2021
Worse for China than Trump
‘Many Chinese now believe that the Biden administration could be more detrimental to U.S.-China relations than the Trump administration.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
'Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?'
‘Senior officials on the foreign policy team have frequently emphasized three “C” words: competition, cooperation, and confrontation.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
The Trump Legacy
‘From Beijing’s perspective, the hawkish approach to China in the final year of the Trump administration revealed that the Trump team sought to defeat and destroy China in much the same way that the United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'
‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'
‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Sex and the Chinese Economy'
‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.