CHINAMacroReporter

Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

In today’s issue: 1. China Lays Out Its Position / 2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position / 3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition / 4. Burma or Myanmar?
by

|

CHINADebate

February 3, 2021
Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

In today’s issue:

1. China Lays Out Its Position

  • 'A Conversation with Politburo Member Yang Jiechi'

2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position

  • 'Biden's whole-of-National Security Council China strategy'
  • 'National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on U.S. Policy Toward China'
  • 'Secretary of State Antony Blinken on U.S. Policy Toward China'

3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

  • 'Burma’s Coup and Biden’s Choice'
  • 'Coup a further complication for tricky Myanmar-China ties'
  • 'Coup Puts Myanmar at the Center of the U.S.-China Clash'

4. Burma or Myanmar?

  • 'Myanmar, Burma and why the different names matter'

During the Cold War the U.S. and the Soviet Union never met in a direct military confrontation.

  • Instead they pursued their aims through ‘proxy wars.’

It’s hard to imagine where and how the U.S. and China could fight those sorts of wars.

  • Their proxy wars – if that term is even applicable - will be fought over economic and political influence in smaller countries.
  • Which brings us to the coup in Burma.

While the U.S. had no hand in the coup in Burma, and China, as of this writing, didn’t appear to either, their competition for influence in Burma somehow brings the idea of a proxy war to mind.

  • Since the Obama administration, the U.S. has worked to coax Burma into the democracy camp and at the same time decrying its human rights abuses.
  • All this time, China courted Burma’s leaders (and certainly corrupted some of them), invested billions, and promised billions more to increase its influence and its access to the Bay of Bengal through Burma.

In these few days since the coup, China seems poised to claim victory over U.S. interests.

  • Craft overcame principle.

That matters because as The Wall Street Journal right points out:

  • ‘The top U.S. priority in Asia is limiting Beijing’s ability to control independent states like Burma, which is strategically situated in the Indo-Pacific.’
  • ‘The U.S. response needs to take into account China’s regional designs.’

Good advice for the Biden team.

  • And for us, good reason to study the history of Sino-Burmese/U.S.-Burmese relations, especially in the last decade. (And to read the reports and analyses below)

Burma won’t be the only arena for this sort of proxy war.

  • The lessons learned won’t be wasted.

Note: I had forgotten how we got to ‘Myanmar’ from ‘Burma.’ The AP explained:

  • ‘For generations, the country was called Burma, after the dominant Burman ethnic group.’
  • ‘But in 1989, one year after the ruling junta brutally suppressed a pro-democracy uprising, military leaders suddenly changed its name to Myanmar.'

‘By then, Burma was an international pariah, desperate for any way to improve its image.'

  • ‘Hoping for a sliver of international legitimacy, it said it was discarding a name handed down from its colonial past and to foster ethnic unity.'
  • ‘The old name, officials said, excluded the country’s many ethnic minorities.'

‘Unlike most of the world, the U.S. government still officially uses “Burma.” ’

  • ‘Washington’s response to the coup seemed designed to highlight old criticisms, with both Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Joe Biden pointedly avoiding the country’s legal name.
  • Burma works for me.

Through speeches and interviews, the distinctions between the positions of the U.S. and China are becoming clearer.

  • Here are excerpts of comments made in the last week in different forums by Politburo member Yang Jiechi to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
  • Each was in a different venue, not speaking and responding to each other.
  • I have paired these separate comments up by issue.

For the most part these tell us what we already knew: that positions of China and of the U.S. are vastly divergent.

  • Of particular importance though is China’s explicit statement of Hong Kong, the Uighurs, and Taiwan being ‘red lines’ for China.
  • And statements of the U.S. intent to run right over them.

On how to deal with the other

Mr. Yang:‘Over the past few years, the Trump administration adopted misguided policies against China, plunging the relationship into its most difficult period since the establishment of diplomatic ties.’

  • ‘Some in the United States, sticking to Cold War thinking, perceived China as a threat.’
  • ‘Their rhetoric and actions have interfered in China's internal affairs, undermined China's interests, and disrupted exchanges and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two sides.’
  • ‘There have also been attempts to seek "decoupling" and a so-called "new Cold War".’

‘China should be seen as it is. The previous administration has pursued some misguided policies towards China. ‘

  • ‘The root cause, I would say, is a strategic misjudgment by some in the United States - they view China as a major strategic competitor, even an adversary.’
  • ‘That, I am afraid, is historically, fundamentally and strategically wrong.’

‘It is a task for both China and the United States to restore the relationship to a predictable and constructive track of development, and to build a model of interaction between the two major countries that focuses on peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.’

Mr. Blinken: ‘There’s no doubt that China poses the most significant challenge to us of any other country, but it’s a complicated one.’

  • ‘There are adversarial aspects to the relationship, there are certainly competitive ones, and there are still some cooperative ones, too.’
  • ‘But whether we’re dealing with any of those aspects of the relationship, we have to be able to approach China from a position of strength, not weakness.'

‘And that strength, I think, comes from having strong alliances, something China does not have; actually engaging in the world and showing up in these international institutions.’

  • ‘Because we when pull back, China fills in and then they’re the ones writing the rules and setting the norms of these institutions;’
  • 'standing up for our values when China is challenging them, including in Xinjiang against the Uyghurs or democracy in Hong Kong;’
  • 'making sure that our military is postured so that it can deter Chinese aggression; and investing in our own people so that they can fully compete.’

On China’s aims

Mr. Yang: ‘China never exports its development model or seeks ideological confrontation.'

  • 'China has no intention to challenge or replace the U.S. position in the world, or to carve out a sphere of influence.’

Mr. Sullivan: ‘China is essentially making the case that the Chinese model is better than the American model.’

  • ‘And they're pointing to dysfunction and division in the United States and saying, “Take a look at that, their system doesn't work, our system does.” ’
  • ‘Increasingly over the last few years, you've heard their leaders right from the top speak more explicitly in these terms.’
  • ‘This is not any one or some kind of implied contrast, it is an explicit statement that there is an alternative model to the democratic market economy model that these United States has been advancing over the course of decades.’

On Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan

Mr. Yang: ‘Weexpect the United States to honor its commitment under the three Sino-U.S. Joint Communiqués, strictly abide by the One China principle, and respect China's position and concerns on the Taiwan question.’

  • ‘The United States should stop interference in the affairs of Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang, which all matter to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and stop attempts to hold back China's development by meddling in China's internal affairs.’

‘They constitute a red line that must not be crossed.’

Mr. Sullivan: The U.S. is ‘prepared to act as well to impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, what it’s doing in Hong Kong, for the bellicosity of threats that it is projecting towards Taiwan.’


CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue. Including an article here does not imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

April 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'Change unseen for a 100 years is coming.'
Time went of joint in the mid-1800s when China began its ‘Century of Humiliation.’ And Mr. Xi, with a sense of destiny, seems to feel he was born to set it right. (I very much doubt that Mr. Xi would add: ‘O cursed spite’ – he seems to relish his role and the shot it gives him to go down in history as China’s greatest ruler.)
keep reading
January 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?
Some have asked me what will be the greatest risk to China in the next five years. My answer: That Xi Jinping will overstep and enact policies that Chinese people won’t accept, especially those that have a direct impact on their lives and livelihoods.
keep reading
November 22, 2022
'Strangling with an intent to kill.’
I began to have some hope of getting our act together with Mr. Biden. He worked to rebuild relations with allies who could join the U.S. in the competition. And he understood the need for America to strengthen itself for competition. Hence, the infrastructure, CHIPS, and other acts. But whether Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, one thing nagged me beyond all the rest. Why is America strengthening our competitor? — In the instant case: Why is America giving our competitor advanced semiconductor resources to strengthen itself to compete against us?
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'Another China-Related Risk for Investors & Corporations: Taiwan'
"Taiwan poses the biggest geopolitical risk in Asia and is likely to only increase, a reason it has to be built into investors’ [and corporates' models]" according to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.
keep reading
May 5, 2021
'Western companies in China succumb to Stockholm syndrome'
‘Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a point when he calls Delta Air Lines “the height of hypocrisy” for opposing voter legislation in the US state of Georgia while partnering with a government he accuses of being “actively engaged in genocide” in Xinjiang.’
keep reading
May 4, 2021
'The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties'
At their summit in April, ‘after years of veiled messaging Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga U.S. President Joe Biden, ‘formally acknowledged that they are working together to deter China’s military power in Asia and compete with China economically.’
keep reading
May 3, 2021
'How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?'
‘China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar’s global dominance.’ ‘Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country’s technology giants and traditional banks.’
keep reading
May 2, 2021
'Fanning the Flames of War'
I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
keep reading
May 2, 2021
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
keep reading
April 30, 2021
'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'
‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
keep reading
April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark
Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden’s First 100 Days: Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition'
‘Biden is focused on accumulating as much leverage as possible to deal with China from a position of strength and to dispel the growing Chinese perception that the United States is a power in decline.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What Joe Biden Said About China in His First Speech to Joint Session of Congress'
“We’re in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century.”
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden's Speech Calls for U.S. to Take On China and Russia'
‘President Biden justified his broad vision to remake the American economy as the necessary step to survive long-run competition with China
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What does Biden’s first 100 days tell us about his approach to China?'
‘What we have learned from the first 100 days is that we are likely to have both a confrontational and competitive relationship with China, similar to Trump’s policy but with some important nuances.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'China's Response to Biden's Speech'
‘It is natural for the two sides to have competition in some fields, but we should advocate fair competition, like competing with each other for excellence in a racing field, not beating each other on a wrestling arena.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'The New Age of Autarky'
‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'China Inside Out: A Conversation with Susan Shirk & Tony Saich'
‘The centralization of power, quite predictably, leads to this kind of echo chamber effect, which is really quite dangerous. And it's something that we should be factoring in when we think about how to deal with China now.’
keep reading
April 24, 2021
'Xinhua News Agency on the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021" in the U.S.' | 新华社评美“2021年战略竞争法案”
‘The bill is full of Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice, wantonly misinterpreting, slandering and discrediting China's development strategy and domestic and foreign policies, and grossly interfering in China's internal affairs.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'A new era of bipartisanship on China in Congress?
‘The Strategic Competition Act codifies a bipartisan U.S. position on a range of China-related issues and telegraphs to U.S. allies the federal government is unified.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'Xi at the Climate Summit: Domestic Obstacles to Carbon Neutrality'
‘Xi’s reticence at the summit could be driven by domestic considerations. He needs to balance divergent interests between domestic industrial groups and international expectations, the need to show China’s green image and also not be seen as caving to U.S. diplomatic pressure.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
'Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan'
"We advise Japan to stay away from the Taiwan question. The deeper it is embroiled in, the bigger the price it will pay." Communist Party-backed Global Times' editorial.
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Xi calls for new world order (again)'
‘We must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others, or allow unilateralism pursued by certain countries [read America] to set the pace for the whole world.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Beijing won total control of Hong Kong. Now, the "brainwashing" begins.'
April 15 was not a normal Thursday in Hong Kong. That occasion, the first “National Security Education Day” since China imposed a tough security law in June, was the most visible display of Hong Kong’s fall from a relatively free, boisterous territory to an ­Orwellian place that resembles the repressive mainland.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
‘The US-Japan Joint Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs'
‘The US-Japan Joint Leaders' Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs and severely violates basic norms governing international relations. China deplores and rejects it.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
'Tokyo Flexes Its Talons'
‘The alliance with Japan is the single most important international relationship America has.’
keep reading
April 18, 2021
'Taiwan in US-Japan statement: show of resolve or diplomatic calculus?'
"The statement shunned more specific language like 'defend Taiwan' to avoid unnecessarily provoking China."
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Is growth in China soaring or slowing?: The answer depends on how you calculate growth'
‘It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.’
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Margaret Ng's Statement at Conclusion of Today's Trial'
‘There is no right so precious to the people of Hong Kong as the freedom of expression and the freedom of peaceful assembly.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
U.S.-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. - JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”
‘President Biden and Prime Minister Suga exchanged views on the impact of China’s actions on peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the world, and shared their concerns over Chinese activities that are inconsistent with the international rules-based order, including the use of economic and other forms of coercion.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Breaking China’s Stranglehold on the U.S. Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain'
‘China’s control of the supply of usable, refined rare earth elements undermines U.S. security and that of its allies.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'China’s economy springs back from pandemic hit with record growth'
“The headline year-on-year data really doesn’t tell us the story of how the economy has performed in the first quarter . . . in fact that performance was a bit disappointing. The silver lining is that March was better than the first two months.”
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Hong Kong Newspaper Tycoon Jimmy Lai Jailed Over Role in Peaceful Protests'
“The wrongful prosecution, conviction and sentencing of these activists underlines the Hong Kong government’s intention to eliminate all political opposition in the city,”
keep reading
April 15, 2021
'Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Is a Blow for China'
‘President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan at the end of summer is likely to confound Chinese calculations, both economic and geopolitical.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.