CHINAMacroReporter

‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’

‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
by

Kishore Mahbubani | National University of Singapore & author of 'Has China Won?'

|

Global Asia

May 2, 2021
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’
BIG IDEA | ‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’
‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’
‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’
‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’

‘The most important question that US President Joe Biden’s administration needs to ask in formulating its China policy is a simple one:’

  • ‘Was Donald Trump right or wrong on China?’

‘Right now, the overwhelming consensus in Washington is that even if he was wrong on everything else, Trump was right on China.’

  • ‘There is therefore a real danger that the Biden administration will retain many elements of Trump’s policies toward China.’
  • ‘If so, America is heading toward a disaster.’

‘What exactly did Trump accomplish with China? Did his administration’s policies raise America’s standing in the world, weaken China significantly, and lead to the progressive isolation of China from the vast majority of countries?’

  • ‘The answer to all three questions is a resounding no.’

‘If America were to listen, what would it learn from the perceptions of other countries toward China?’

‘First, none of those other countries would agree with the Trump administration’s belief that the Chinese Communist Party will disappear.’

‘Second, more importantly, none see China as an exporter of communism to undermine democracy.’

‘Third, most serious leaders around the world see Xi Jinping as a capable, competent and constructive leader.’

  • ‘The demonization of Xi, particularly in the Anglo-Saxon media, has been damaging because it will lead Americans to underestimate him.’

‘Trump was praised in America for bashing China, no major country supported his policies toward China.’

  • ‘They could see these policies heading toward failure.’

‘The third and most difficult step that the Biden administration will have to take is to develop a realistic understanding of the real strengths and weaknesses of its strategic adversary.’

  • ‘Most Americans believe that the 1.4 billion Chinese people are unhappy.’
  • ‘Hence, they cannot even conceive of the realistic possibility that the Chinese people may be swimming happily in an ocean of Chinese norms and values, which create both a sense of a well-ordered moral society and psychological wellbeing.’
  • ‘By historical standards, the vast masses of Chinese people have never been better off. For the Chinese people, especially for the bottom 50 percent, the past 40 years have been the best in the 4,000 years of Chinese history.’

‘The fourth step is to work out a comprehensive long-term strategy to manage the competition with China. This will not be easy.’

  • ‘Some past options are not available.’

‘Containment, for example, will not be possible.’

  • ‘More countries trade more with China than with America. Indeed, much more.’

‘Nor can America assume military superiority, especially close to China’s shores.’

  • ‘All the Pentagon war games show that American aircraft carriers and battleships are vulnerable to Chinese hypersonic missiles.’
  • ‘Fortunately, the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine will prevent all-out war between America and China.’

‘The Biden administration has been wise in reaching out to allies and friends in formulating a new China policy.’

  • ‘Many allies and friends, including Japan, India, the UK, and Australia, share American strategic concerns about the rise of Chinese power, but none will join a containment policy.’

‘The fifth and final step that the Biden administration needs to take may look simple: Stop insulting China (in the way Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo used to do).’

‘At the end of the day, what most of humanity would like to see is a rational understanding and a rational discourse between the world’s two leading powers, America and China.’

‘Insults never help.’

  • ‘One of the best definitions of a good diplomat is that he or she is someone who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you feel you are going to enjoy the journey.’

‘Diplomacy has been around for several thousand years.'

  • ‘It’s the best weapon the Biden administration can use to build a new relationship with China, with the right balance of competition and co-operation.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

April 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'Change unseen for a 100 years is coming.'
Time went of joint in the mid-1800s when China began its ‘Century of Humiliation.’ And Mr. Xi, with a sense of destiny, seems to feel he was born to set it right. (I very much doubt that Mr. Xi would add: ‘O cursed spite’ – he seems to relish his role and the shot it gives him to go down in history as China’s greatest ruler.)
keep reading
January 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?
Some have asked me what will be the greatest risk to China in the next five years. My answer: That Xi Jinping will overstep and enact policies that Chinese people won’t accept, especially those that have a direct impact on their lives and livelihoods.
keep reading
November 22, 2022
'Strangling with an intent to kill.’
I began to have some hope of getting our act together with Mr. Biden. He worked to rebuild relations with allies who could join the U.S. in the competition. And he understood the need for America to strengthen itself for competition. Hence, the infrastructure, CHIPS, and other acts. But whether Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, one thing nagged me beyond all the rest. Why is America strengthening our competitor? — In the instant case: Why is America giving our competitor advanced semiconductor resources to strengthen itself to compete against us?
keep reading
March 9, 2017
So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story
[CHINADebate Presentation] One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.—Almost everyone on the outside seems to have missed the biggest bull market in China housing in 2016, culminating in policy tightening cycle kicking in at the end of the year. But what's next?
keep reading
February 27, 2017
Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?
'China isn't positioned to replace the U.S. as a global leader anytime soon.'—Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became: 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?' Yes and no, says Bill Overholt of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S. What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S. So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet?
keep reading
February 15, 2017
C-to-C Internet Commerce- From Taobao Shops to Taobao Villages
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
Why SOE Reform is So Tough
'...SOEs need to reform, because on one hand, many of them have achieved a lot for China. On the other hand, they've actually created quite a lot of harm, in particular in the areas of overcapacity but also in the areas of corruption we've talked about.'
keep reading
February 2, 2017
AmCham China Chairmen's View From China in D.C. 2017
[AmCham China & CHINADebate U.S.—China Trade/Business Series 2017] Terrific insights from leaders on the ground in China. While in D.C. the Chairmen joined us in a panel discussion and individual interviews about U.S. business in China, U.S.-China relations, trade, and much more. We present their views in a 13 part series. Sheryl WuDunn, business executive, lecturer, best-selling author, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize moderated.
keep reading
February 1, 2017
'Chinese Politics In The Xi Jinping Era'
[Malcolm Riddell Interviewed Cheng Li] 'If you ask any taxi driver in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, he or she will tell you – with accuracy – which leader belongs to which faction. : 'China is a one–party state, but that does not necessarily mean Chinese leadership is a monolithic group with leaders who have the same ideas, same background, same world views, same politics. No, they're divided.'
keep reading
December 7, 2016
First 100 Days: Do Not Provoke China
The First 100 Days interview series features Pacific Council experts addressing the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming Trump administration.: Warns of the potential for new conflicts if Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promises regarding China.
keep reading
October 18, 2016
How Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent are Changing the Rules of Business
[An Interview of Ed Tse, the author of 'China's Disruptors: Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent... how innovative 'Disruptor' companies are restructuring China's economy.' ] The real force in Chinese economy is increasingly private companies, not SOEs. / Leading private Chinese companies are innovative and ambitious
keep reading
July 14, 2016
How 'Brexit' Will Impact China's Economy
David Dollar gives you fresh insights to better incorporate Brexit's impact into your analyses of China and global economies & markets, including: 1. Why, after the Brexit vote, did the Shanghai Stock Market fall only 1%? 2. How will Brexit affect the value of the RMB and China's currency policy? 3. How will Brexit impact trade with the EU, China’s largest trading partner? 4. Why, in the larger geopolitical perspective, could China be the big winner from Brexit?
keep reading
July 2, 2016
China housing: boom, bust, or bubble-or...?
100s of Cities Bubble Up & Down As Policy Makers Press the Levers China hasn’t collapsed. And, the bubble hasn’t burst because there may not be just one big real estate bubble. Instead, there are 100s of sizable cities, each moving in its own cycle, each responding to how its local policymakers stimulate & tighten-stimulate & tighten, and each having performance divergent from that of other cities. Watch here to see how city-level markets bubble up and bubble down...
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.