CHINAMacroReporter

Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
keep reading

CHINARoundtable

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

‍'The air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’

‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’‍

Tom Orlik


Join us at the CHINARoundtable where Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, will discuss:‍

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]‍

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom

In 2020, our guest speaker, Tom Orlik, published China: The Bubble That Never Pops to great acclaim.

  • Then just two years later so much had changed that he published an update.

As he explains in his recent Bloomberg essay ‘The China Bubble Is Losing Air But Won’t Burst’:

  • ‘If China is in for a hard landing, the consequences would be cataclysmic for the financial system and economy; for the ruling Communist Party; for global markets.’

‘Amid the host of potential losers, spare a thought for the author who—in 2020—published a book with the provocative title China: The Bubble That Never Pops.’

  • ‘I made the case that the country’s economic and financial system is more resilient, and its policymakers more ingenious, than critics in Washington and on Wall Street would have you believe.’

‘In the two years since, that thesis has undergone an extreme stress test.’

  • ‘Some might say it’s failed.’

‘In the second edition of my book, I take a different view.’

  • Yes, the air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’
  • ‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’

Tom will give us his latest thinking on the Chinese economy at the upcoming CHINARoundtable.

Tom Orlik is Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics.

  • He was formerly the Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg and China economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.
  • Before turning to journalism, he worked at the British Treasury, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund.
  • Tom earned a Master of Public Policy degree from the Harvard Kennedy School.
  • Besides China: The Bubble That Never Pops, he is also the author of Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities.
  • And Tom lived in China for 10 years.

Look forward to hearing your comments and your questions for Tom on December 1.

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]‍

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom
contact

More

CHINAMacroReporter

PRC Foreign Ministry Response to the USTR's 'National Trade Estimate Report'
‘The accusations and slanders made by the US against China's industrial policies are groundless.’
April 1, 2021

'Consumer boycotts warn of trouble ahead for Western firms in China'
‘Western executives in China cannot shake an unsettling fear that this time is different.’‘Their lucrative Chinese operations are at rising risk of tumbling into the political chasm that has opened between the West and China.’
March 31, 2021

'How the Pandemic is Changing the Belt & Road Initiative'
‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’
March 31, 2021

Chinese Boycotts are the Least of Your Worries
‘For chief executives [and boards] around the world, watching the Chinese government go after Swedish clothier Hennes & Mauritz AB is excruciating — facing the evaporation of your hard-won China business over political issues largely out of your control,’ writes Michael Schuman in Bloomberg.’ ‘But it could be the new normal.’ ‘As relations between China and the U.S. and its allies deteriorate, Western businesses could increasingly get dragged into the fray.’
March 31, 2021

'The Threat the U.S. Isn't Answering'
‘If BRI meets little competition or resistance, Beijing could become the hub of global trade, set important technical standards that would disadvantage non-Chinese companies, lock countries into carbon-intensive power generation, have greater influence over countries’ political decisions, and acquire more power-projection capabilities for its military.’
March 31, 2021

'China Is Missing from the Great Inflation Debate'

‘Once again, massive fiscal spending in the United States has invited warnings of inflation and triggered dark memories of the 1970s. But these fears are based on a model that has since been obliterated by economic realities – not least the rise of China, which has fundamentally reshaped the US and global economies.’
March 31, 2021

Free Newsletter Signup

Published by CHINADebate
Bringing you the world's best thinking on China