CHINAMacroReporter

Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
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CHINARoundtable

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

‍'The air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’

‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’‍

Tom Orlik


Join us at the CHINARoundtable where Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, will discuss:‍

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]‍

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom

In 2020, our guest speaker, Tom Orlik, published China: The Bubble That Never Pops to great acclaim.

  • Then just two years later so much had changed that he published an update.

As he explains in his recent Bloomberg essay ‘The China Bubble Is Losing Air But Won’t Burst’:

  • ‘If China is in for a hard landing, the consequences would be cataclysmic for the financial system and economy; for the ruling Communist Party; for global markets.’

‘Amid the host of potential losers, spare a thought for the author who—in 2020—published a book with the provocative title China: The Bubble That Never Pops.’

  • ‘I made the case that the country’s economic and financial system is more resilient, and its policymakers more ingenious, than critics in Washington and on Wall Street would have you believe.’

‘In the two years since, that thesis has undergone an extreme stress test.’

  • ‘Some might say it’s failed.’

‘In the second edition of my book, I take a different view.’

  • Yes, the air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’
  • ‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’

Tom will give us his latest thinking on the Chinese economy at the upcoming CHINARoundtable.

Tom Orlik is Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics.

  • He was formerly the Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg and China economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.
  • Before turning to journalism, he worked at the British Treasury, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund.
  • Tom earned a Master of Public Policy degree from the Harvard Kennedy School.
  • Besides China: The Bubble That Never Pops, he is also the author of Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities.
  • And Tom lived in China for 10 years.

Look forward to hearing your comments and your questions for Tom on December 1.

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]‍

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom
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'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse'
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'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'
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January 13, 2021

1. 'Restoring Balance'
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January 13, 2021

3. 'Forging Coalitions'
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January 13, 2021

'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order'
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January 13, 2021

2. 'Restoring Legitimacy'
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January 13, 2021

Kurt Campbell & Biden Asia Policy
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January 13, 2021

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'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay'

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January 9, 2021

'The Relevant Organs' Pro Tip: 'You Definitely Need a Show Trial'
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How the Chinese reacted to the incident at the Capitol
In this issue: 1. China Reacts / ‘On Double Standards’ - 'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst' - 'A Few Tweets from Hu Xijin 胡锡进, Editor of The Global Times' / 2. ‘Architect of Trump China Policy Resigns’ - 'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay' / 3. A Pro Tip from 'The Relevant Organs' - 'Dealing with Insurrectionist Leaders the Chinese Way'
January 9, 2021

'On Double Standards'
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January 9, 2021

'Mo money, Ma problems - Chinese trustbusters’ pursuit of Alibaba is only the start'
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January 6, 2021

'Mo Money, Ma Problems'
In today’s issue: 1. Eurasia Group| ‘Top Risks of 2021’ / 2. Biden & the EU-China Investment Agreement / 3. The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro & Con / 4. China's Antitrust Investigation into AliBaba
January 6, 2021

PRO | 'The Importance of the EU, China Investment Deal'
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January 6, 2021

'China and E.U. Leaders Strike Investment Deal, but Political Hurdles Await'
‘China appeared eager to reach an agreement before Mr. Biden takes office in January, calculating that closer economic ties with the Europeans could forestall efforts by the new administration to come up with an allied strategy for challenging China’s trade practices and other policies.’
January 6, 2021

'China’s Pro-Monopoly Antitrust Crusade'
‘But Chinese regulators are unlikely to stop at Alibaba; China’s entire private sector has a target on its back.’
January 6, 2021

‘Top Risks of 2021’: CHINA
'Overall, this year will experience an expansion of a high level of US-China tensions.'
January 6, 2021

CON | 'Europe has handed China a strategic victory'
“We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.”
January 6, 2021

'With Concessions and Deals, China’s Leader Tries to Box Out Biden'

‘Mr. Biden has pledged to galvanize a coalition to confront the economic, diplomatic and military challenges that China poses. China clearly foresaw the potential threat.’
January 6, 2021

'Sansha City in China's South China Sea Strategy: Building a System of Administrative Control'
‘Sansha City, headquartered on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands, has created a system of party-state institutions that have normalized administrative control in the South China Sea. This system ultimately allows China to govern contested areas of the South China Sea as if they were Chinese territory.’
January 5, 2021

Happy New Year!
January 1, 2021

Competition With China Could Be Short and Sharp
‘The bad news is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain.’ / ‘Historically, the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’
January 1, 2021

'Rivers of Iron': Changing the Face of Asia
‘But what's happened now is that Southeast Asia is rich enough to contemplate such infrastructure and that the Chinese have the technology, money, and high-speed rail industry so that they can both finance or help finance and build it.’
October 7, 2020

Why China's Economy is Growing Faster than Others
‘First is China's relatively aggressive and decisive measures on the COVID public health crisis itself that managed to get the pandemic under control much faster than the other large economies.’ ‘The relative success in controlling the pandemic translates into how much people are willing to go back to their normal lives, to their jobs, and the like.’
August 27, 2020

The Chinese Communist Party Fears Ending Up Like the Soviet Union
‘The propaganda ministry - within four to six weeks - managed to turn China into a problem for Europeans. China’s standing in Europe is eroding by the day.'
May 20, 2020

The Party is Infallible
'The Hong Kong demonstrations can never be because of policy mistakes by the Communist Party itself.’ During our interview, Tony Saich of the Harvard Kennedy School told me: ‘Hong Kong, with its responses to the demonstrations, and the Coronavirus are both illustrative examples of how the culture of the Communist Party and the traditions it's built up over almost a hundred years reflect the way it behaves when it's confronted by certain crises.’
May 13, 2020

The Phase One Trade Deal
‘The good news is that 80% of our members said they thought the Phase One agreement was a good thing.' 'But only 19% said it was worth it.' 'What the 80% said they are happy about was that there no more new tariffs were coming immediately.’
May 6, 2020

South China Sea & Taiwan
'It would not be accurate to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'
May 2, 2020

Why Inflation Should Not Be A Problem
‘This is a crisis where the first chair is held by the public health officials, and the second chair is held by the fiscal authorities. We at the Fed have the freedom to be able to move relatively quickly, but we're the third chair here, trying to help out where we can.’
April 29, 2020

China, America, & the 'Jaws Syndrome'
‘Both Trump and Xi have a fundamental political divide problem that the COVID-19 epidemic has exposed and made more apparent – and made substantially worse.’
April 25, 2020

Why We Need Stronger Global Institutions
‘The trade war was actually about the dissemination of knowledge, knowledge transfer, technological transfer.’ ‘A great irony. We need global institutions or arrangements to deal with trade, technology, and health because individuals, corporations, and national governments cannot.’
April 22, 2020

The Pandemic's Impact on Trade
‘There are some people who would say that there was already a retreat from globalization underway.’ ‘The tools of globalization - enormous reductions in the cost of transportation and communication - remain.’ ‘But the marginal utility actually of further advances is declining – that would be one way to put it.’
April 18, 2020

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